** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 16.0N 131.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.1N 128.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.8N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.8N 122.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.0N 131.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.2N 127.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.0N 125.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 23.9N 123.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 16.0N 131.7E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 18.2N 127.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 231200UTC 21.0N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 241200UTC 23.9N 123.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT22 KNHC 211437 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 67.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 67.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.1N 67.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 211438 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ACQUIRES EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SINCE THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 045 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. BERYL SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR WEATHER DETAILS IN NOVA SCOTIA SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BERYL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 43.1N 67.4W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 22/0000Z 45.0N 64.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 22/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 211438 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...BERYL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST OR ABOUT 5095 MILES...8195 KM...NORTHWEST OF AND ABOUT 215 MILES...345 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...43.1 N...67.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 211440 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 126.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 126.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 126.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 211440 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL SOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 211442 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS INDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 211442 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 103.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 211452 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR LOCATION AND DISTANCE ...BERYL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST ABOUT 215 MILES...345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...43.1 N...67.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 211504 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT VIERNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL TORNANDOSE EXTRATROPICAL... A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 43.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.4 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 23 MPH...37 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA TRAERA EL CICLON A TRAVES DE NUEVA SCOTIA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS EN NOVA SCOTIA ASOCIADAS CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...43.1 N... NORTE...67.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 23 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPH20 RPMM 211200 *** T T T TYPHOON 03 AT 1200 21 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI)(0605) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST AT 231200 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EAST AND AT 241200 TWO TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 960 HPA AT 16.3N 131.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 18.3N 127.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 16.3N 131.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 18.3N 127.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 231200UTC 21.0N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 241200UTC 23.9N 123.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 125.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 125.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.7N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.2N 129.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.6N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.1N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 211600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 126.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN32 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 103.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 103.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 12.3N 103.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.0N 104.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.0N 106.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.0N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 211600Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 103.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTNT80 EGRR 211739 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 42.3N 69.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 42.3N 69.0W WEAK 00UTC 22.07.2006 BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 13.3N 125.8W STRONG 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.0N 127.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.3N 129.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.5N 131.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 15.1N 133.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.3N 135.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.6N 136.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.9N 137.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 16.3N 139.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 16.3N 139.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.0N 140.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 17.2N 142.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 18.1N 143.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 103.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 12.0N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 22.07.2006 12.1N 104.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.2N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.5N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211739 ** WTNT80 EGRR 211752 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 42.3N 69.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 42.3N 69.0W WEAK 00UTC 22.07.2006 BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 13.3N 125.8W STRONG 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.0N 127.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.3N 129.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.5N 131.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 15.1N 133.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.3N 135.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.6N 136.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.9N 137.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2006 16.3N 139.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 16.3N 139.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.0N 140.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 17.2N 142.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2006 18.1N 143.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 103.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2006 12.0N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 22.07.2006 12.1N 104.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.2N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.5N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211752