** WTIN20 DEMS 210600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210614 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT VIERNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE BERYL ACERCANDOSE A LA ISLA NANTUCKET...SE DESCONTINUO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...SE HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL OESTE DE WOOD HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA LONG ISLAND. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 41.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.5 OESTE O COMO A 25 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...23 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y SE ESPERA QUE BERYL PIERDA LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES PARA ESTA HORA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. NANTUCKET ACABA DE REPORTAR UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 41 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA QUE ACABA DE REPORTAR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS... 29.65 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE MENOS DE 2 PULGADAS ASOCIADAS CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...41.0 N... NORTE...70.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTUS81 KBOX 210615 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-211100- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 215 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW CANCELED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS AND SO NO LONGER INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE HIGHEST UNOFFICIAL OBSERVED WIND GUSTS THROUGH 2 AM WERE 44 KNOTS AT THE CAPE WIND STATION ON NANTUCKET SOUND. AT 2 AM...THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF BERYL WAS OVER NANTUCKET AND THE LOWER-OUTER PART OF CAPE COD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE BY 5 AM. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER PART OF CAPE COD NEAR CHATHAM...AND LESS SO...MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS STORM IS THE MARINE COMMUNITY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET BEFORE DAWN AND THEREAFTER THE HEAVY SURF AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. BERYL SHOULD TRACK VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET AROUND 4 AM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND SLOWLY ACCELERATING. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND 4 AM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE MOORINGS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OUT BY NANTUCKET SHOALS. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 AM THIS MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE TORRENTIAL RAIN BAND THAT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BERYL. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LONGEST DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 2.7 FEET OCCURS AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT MIDNIGHT...HIGHER SWELLS OF 8 TO 15 FT WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. LINGERING RIP CURRENTS MAY REQUIRE THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BE EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NANTUCKET AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN A FEW HOURS OVER NANTUCKET AND THE LOWER CAPE NEAR CHATHAM. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... HYANNIS MA 57 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON AROUND 5 AM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ DRAG ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 15.8N 132.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 17.9N 129.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.3N 126.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 22.5N 123.5E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTUS81 KOKX 210635 *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210735- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR LONG ISLAND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM ...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NANTUCKET JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE ON TROPICAL STORM BERYL. $$ ** WTUS81 KOKX 210635 RRA *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210735- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR LONG ISLAND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM ...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NANTUCKET JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE ON TROPICAL STORM BERYL. $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA AT 15.8N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 18.1N 129.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.6N 126.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 24.0N 124.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 15.8N 132.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 18.1N 129.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 230600UTC 20.6N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 240600UTC 24.0N 124.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 15.8N 132.8E MOVEMENT WNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 18.0N 129.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 20.4N 126.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 23.0N 123.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS81 KBOX 210744 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-211100- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 344 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM BERYL PASSED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF NANTUCKET AROUND 3 AM. THE HIGHEST UNOFFICIAL OBSERVED WIND GUSTS THROUGH 3 AM WERE 44 KNOTS AT THE CAPE WIND STATION ON NANTUCKET SOUND...AND 45 MPH ON NANTUCKET BY A TRAINED SPOTTER. THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION AT THE NANTUCKET AIRPORT HAS THUS FAR REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 44 MPH. JUST OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET...THE NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY REPORTED GUSTS TO 49 KNOTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. AT 320 AM...THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF BERYL WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF GEORGES BANK. A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY AFFECT CAPE COD AND THE ISLAND THROUGH 5 AM...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER PART OF CAPE COD NEAR CHATHAM...AND LESS SO...MARTHAS VINEYARD UNTIL ABOUT 5 AM. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE COMMUNITY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET BEFORE DAWN...AND THEREAFTER THE HEAVY SURF AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. THE RISK OF ANY FLOODING FROM BERYL...HOWEVER...IS DIMINISHING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 3 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND SLOWLY ACCELERATING. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF GEORGES BANK BY 5 AM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION AT THE NANTUCKET AIRPORT REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1006 MB AT 3 AM. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. SEAS HAD RISEN TO 19 FEET ACROSS NANTUCKET SHOALS BY 3 AM. SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET THROUGH 6 AM...AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... BERYL HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NANTUCKET UNTIL ABOUT 5 AM. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY...OR THE UPPER CAPE. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...ONLY A VERY MINOR STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1 OR 2 FEET IS EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THUS...NO COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY...HOWEVER. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 2.7 FEET OCCURS AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. LINGERING RIP CURRENTS MAY REQUIRE THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BE EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS MOVING THROUGH THE NANTUCKET AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN...HOWEVER...HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND THE RISK OF ANY FLOODING FROM BERYL WAS DIMINISHING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ THOMPSON ** WTPZ25 KNHC 210842 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 210846 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 70.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.7N 66.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.7N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.5N 55.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT82 KNHC 210849 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-211500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-211500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTNT32 KNHC 210849 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CENTER OF BERYL PASSES OVER NANTUCKET...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS BERYL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 44008 RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NANTUCKET ISLAND IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...41.7 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 210857 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERYL IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A FEW BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67-KT WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...COMPARISON OF THE AIRCRAFT WINDS WITH SURFACE DATA FROM NANTUCKET AND NEARBY NOAA BUOYS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY 50-60 PERCENT OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED MAINLY ON A 42-KT DROPSONDE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16. BERYL IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MOTION TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S LIFE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THEREFORE... THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AS WELL...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT BERYL IS STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THEN IT SHOULD GET ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 41.7N 69.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 43.7N 66.6W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 22/0600Z 46.7N 61.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/1800Z 49.5N 55.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 210858 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CHANGE 12 HR STATUS TO BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 70.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.7N 66.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.7N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.5N 55.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 210858 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT DANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD BECOME PREDOMINANT. REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 115 KT. DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF DANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 105 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT22 KNHC 210858 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CHANGE 12 HR STATUS TO BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 70.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.7N 66.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.7N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.5N 55.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 210858 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT DANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD BECOME PREDOMINANT. REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 115 KT. DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF DANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 105 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTUS81 KBOX 210919 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-212130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 519 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF GEORGES BANK AT 5 AM. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A GUST OR TWO TO 40 MPH ACROSS NANTUCKET UNTIL 7 AM. THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM BERYL HAS ENDED...AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. SEAS REMAIN VERY ROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MARINERS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE BEFORE VENTURING FROM PORT. THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN WITH BERYL WILL BE RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY FROM LEFT OVER SWELLS ACROSS EXPOSED SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FACING BEACHES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THE LINGERING IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE COMMUNITY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET BEFORE DAWN...AND THEREAFTER THE HEAVY SURF AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...AND SLOWLY ACCELERATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION AT THE NANTUCKET AIRPORT REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1000.7 MB AT 3 AM WHEN THE CENTER OF BERYL PASSED CLOSE BY. A TRAINED STORM SPOTTER ON NANTUCKET REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH. THE NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH ROUGH SEAS...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REACHED 19 FEET ACROSS NANTUCKET SHOALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 15 FEET WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET THROUGH 7 AM...AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVISED TO CONSIDER THE PASSAGE OF BERYL AS A REMINDER TO HAVE PLANS IN PLACE IN THE EVENT A HURRICANE THREATENS OUR AREA LATER IN THE SEASON. ...WIND IMPACTS... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT NANTUCKET UNTIL 7 AM. OTHERWISE...ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 2.7 FEET OCCURS AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SOME BEACH EROSION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A LINGERING SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST...MAINLY ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD WATCH IN CONNECTION WITH BERYL HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...OF HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR BERYL. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ THOMPSON ** WTUS81 KBOX 210923 CCA *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-212145- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 522 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME...NO OTHER CHANGES. ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF GEORGES BANK AT 5 AM. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A GUST OR TWO TO 40 MPH ACROSS NANTUCKET UNTIL 7 AM. THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM BERYL HAS ENDED...AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. SEAS REMAIN VERY ROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MARINERS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE BEFORE VENTURING FROM PORT. THE OTHER LINGERING CONCERN WITH BERYL WILL BE RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY FROM LEFT OVER SWELLS ACROSS EXPOSED SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FACING BEACHES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THE LINGERING IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARINE COMMUNITY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET BEFORE DAWN...AND THEREAFTER THE HEAVY SURF AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...AND SLOWLY ACCELERATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION AT THE NANTUCKET AIRPORT REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1000.7 MB AT 3 AM WHEN THE CENTER OF BERYL PASSED CLOSE BY. A TRAINED STORM SPOTTER ON NANTUCKET REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH. THE NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH ROUGH SEAS...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REACHED 19 FEET ACROSS NANTUCKET SHOALS EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 15 FEET WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET THROUGH 7 AM...AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVISED TO CONSIDER THE PASSAGE OF BERYL AS A REMINDER TO HAVE PLANS IN PLACE IN THE EVENT A HURRICANE THREATENS OUR AREA LATER IN THE SEASON. ...WIND IMPACTS... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT NANTUCKET UNTIL 7 AM. OTHERWISE...ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 2.7 FEET OCCURS AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SOME BEACH EROSION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... A LINGERING SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST...MAINLY ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLOOD WATCH IN CONNECTION WITH BERYL HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...OF HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR BERYL. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ THOMPSON ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210924 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT VIERNES 21 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...EL CENTRO DE BERYL PASA SOBRE NANTUCKET...SE DESCONTINUARON LOS AVISOS... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA DESCONTINUADO PARA LA COSTA DE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...Y NANTUCKET. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 41.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.7 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS Y COMO A 365 MILLAS...590 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH...33 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HOY. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PUEDE TRAER EL CENTRO DE BERYL CERCA O SOBRE NOVA SOCTIA ESTA NOCHE O EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO A MEDIDA QUE BERYL PIERDE LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LA BOYA DE NOAA 44008 RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTO EN UN PROMEDIO DE 10 MINUTOS DE 41 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 56 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADAS POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y LA ISLA DE NANTUCKET ES DE 1001 MILIBARAS... 29.56 PULGADAS. LAS MAREAS SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE MASSACHUSETTS DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. SON POSIBLES CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS EN NOVA SCOTIA ASOCIADAS CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...41.7 N... NORTE...69.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 21 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 125.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 125.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.6N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.1N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.5N 130.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 211000Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 125.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 15.9N 132.1E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 18.2N 128.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 230600UTC 20.6N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 240600UTC 24.0N 124.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0605 KAEMI (0605) 965 HPA AT 15.9N 132.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 18.2N 128.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 210600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 0600 21 JULY TYPHOON (KAEMI) (0605) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220600 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AT 230600 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 240600 TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=