** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 15.4N 134.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 131.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 20.5N 127.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 22.6N 124.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTUS81 KOKX 210026 *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210600- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 826 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD STILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SWELLS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 10 TO 12 FEET SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND MAY BUILD AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND AND IN THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO MONTAUK POINT...AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER COULD STILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE WATCH AREA. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL ARE ALREADY PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... MONTAUK POINT...38 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER. ...NEW INFORMATION... NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BUOY 44025 SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 33 KNOTS SINCE MID AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BEACH PATROLS REPORTED EARLIER OF BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL SEE THE BULK OF THIS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE STORM. SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY AROUND 1130 EDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 15.4N 134.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 17.8N 130.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 230000UTC 19.9N 126.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 240000UTC 22.2N 124.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 970 HPA AT 15.4N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 17.8N 130.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.9N 126.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.2N 124.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS81 KBOX 210127 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 925 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BEING INFLUENCED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT IT IS STILL RIGHT ON THE EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK. SO FAR...THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR AT OBSERVATION PLATFORMS HAS BEEN A GUST TO 33 KNOTS AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND. AT 9 PM...THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF BERYL WAS APPROACHING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER NANTUCKET AS THE STORM TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE MOORINGS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAD ALREADY BUILT TO 10 TO 12 FEET FROM NANTUCKET SHOALS TO SOUTH OF MONTAUK. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE TORRENTIAL RAIN BAND THAT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BERYL. THIS WILL BE APPROACHING NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD AT APPROXIMATELY 3 OR 4 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LONGEST DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE ON NANTUCKET WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT 9 PM...HIGHER SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FT WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. LINGERING RIP CURRENTS MAY REQUIRE THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BE EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE TORRENTIAL RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AREA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN A FEW HOURS OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 79 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 8 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 12 AM MIDNIGHT EDT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ FIELD ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 134.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 134.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.9N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.2N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.3N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.4N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.4N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.9N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 25.5N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 133.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 210242 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. DESPITE BERYL'S RAGGED APPEARANCE... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 54 KT FROM 850 MB AT 2314 UTC... WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE USING STANDARD REDUCTION FACTORS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE VERY NEAR THAT LOCATION IN THE MAXIMUM WIND BAND ALSO SUPPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... A LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLD WATERS LESS THAN 22C AND GENERALLY INCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS. BERYL IS MOVING 040/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. ON THIS HEADING BERYL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER IT DEPARTS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SOLUTION AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. WIND RADII BEYOND 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MOST OF THE WIND ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BERYL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 40.2N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 41.9N 69.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 44.8N 64.3W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/1200Z 47.5N 58.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT22 KNHC 210243 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0300 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 71.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 71.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.9N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.8N 64.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.5N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 71.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 210244 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL WITH OUTER BANDING FEATURES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 115 KT...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR AVERAGE RAW ADT FROM UW/CIMSS IS T6.6...OR 130 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH NO WELL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALLS APPARENT...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 24-36 HOURS DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL DECAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 96 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK SLOWS AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.1N 124.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W 125 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 210244 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 250NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT32 KNHC 210244 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...BERYL HEADING TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM ...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...40.2 N...71.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT82 KNHC 210248 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ CTC007-009-011-NYC103-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ ANZ330-350-353-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ANZ233-234-235-236-237-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210305 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL SE DIRIJE HACIA EL EXTREMO SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL OESTE DE WOOD HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y EL PUERTO DE FORT JEFFERSON. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 40.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.3 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO EN VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO A ESTA MISMA HORA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1003 MILIBARAS... 29.62 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE MENOS DE 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...40.2 N... NORTE...71.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/FRANKLIN ERA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210306 CCB *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL SE DIRIGE HACIA EL EXTREMO SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL OESTE DE WOOD HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y EL PUERTO DE FORT JEFFERSON. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 40.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.3 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO EN VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO A ESTA MISMA HORA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1003 MILIBARAS... 29.62 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE MENOS DE 2 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...40.2 N... NORTE...71.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/FRANKLIN ERA ** WTUS81 KOKX 210316 *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1116 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD STILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT TO EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. SWELLS BEING GENERATED BY BERYL HAVE ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FEET SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...AS BERYL MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGES OF AROUND 1 FOOT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION HAS CAUSED SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT LONGER. ...WIND IMPACTS... BERYL IS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR AREA...ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT...AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH BERYL IS STILL PACKING WINDS OF 50 MPH...THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED NEAR THE CENTER. THE HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR AREA SHOULD ONLY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH AND THIS MOST LIKELY WILL BE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO A RAIN BAND SWIRLING IN FROM THE OCEAN. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... A RAIN BAND FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY STILL GENERATE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL ARE PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE FOLLOWING IS THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A SELECTED LOCATION IN OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... MONTAUK POINT...6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER. ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND BERYL MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY AROUND 230 AM EDT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 210300 *** WARNING 210300. WARNING VALID 220300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 970 HPA AT 15.7N 133.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 18.2N 129.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 15.7N 133.4E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 18.2N 129.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 230000UTC 19.9N 126.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 240000UTC 22.2N 124.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 124.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 124.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.6N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 155 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.1N 127.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.0N 130.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.0N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 18.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 210400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 124.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.// ** WTUS81 KBOX 210418 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-211630- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1218 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WERE 33 KNOTS AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND. AT MIDNIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF BERYL WAS OVER NANTUCKET AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER NANTUCKET AS THE STORM TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...AND SLOWLY ACCELERATING. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. ALL PREPARATIONS TO SECURE MOORINGS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAD ALREADY BUILT TO 10 TO 12 FEET FROM NANTUCKET SHOALS TO SOUTH OF MONTAUK. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 TO 6 AM THIS MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE TORRENTIAL RAIN BAND THAT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BERYL. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD THROUGH 4 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LONGEST DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE ON NANTUCKET WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 2.7 FEET OCCURS AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT MIDNIGHT...HIGHER SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FT WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. LINGERING RIP CURRENTS MAY REQUIRE THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BE EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST FOR FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS MOVING THROUGH THE MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN A FEW HOURS OVER THESE AREAS...AND MAY SPREAD INTO EASTERN PARTS OF CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 57 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 8 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON AROUND 3 AM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ WTB ** WTNT32 KNHC 210541 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...CENTER OF BERYL APPROACHING NANTUCKET ISLAND...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR LONG ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM ...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NANTUCKET JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...41.0 N...70.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT82 KNHC 210545 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ CTC007-009-011-NYC103-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ ANZ330-350-353-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ANZ233-234-235-236-237-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... ** WTNT80 EGRR 210551 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.07.2006 HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 123.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.07.2006 12.9N 123.9W STRONG 12UTC 21.07.2006 13.4N 125.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.0N 127.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.4N 129.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 131.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.7N 133.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 15.1N 134.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.4N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.5N 137.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 15.9N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2006 15.9N 138.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 16.4N 139.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2006 17.0N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.6N 71.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- ----------- 00UTC 21.07.2006 39.6N 71.6W WEAK 12UTC 21.07.2006 41.9N 68.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210551