** WTCA42 TJSJ 201803 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 200 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE-NORESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA DESDE EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y FORT JEFFERSON. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 39.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.6 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...200 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BERYL CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. ESTAS LLUVIAS SE EXTIENDEN BIEN AL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...39.1 NORTE...72.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS81 KBOX 201832 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 232 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT 2 PM. IN ADDITION...SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 11 FT AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND 10 FT AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. THE OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM...DIMINISHING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT AND WESTERLY. THIS REGION MAY EXPERIENCE ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT 2 PM...HIGHER SWELLS UP TO 10 FT...AND BUILDING...WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 59 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 37 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 6 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ KJC ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 201800UTC 14.2N 135.4E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 211800UTC 16.8N 131.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 221800UTC 19.3N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 231800UTC 21.6N 125.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 201800 *** WARNING 201800. WARNING VALID 211800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 970 HPA AT 14.2N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 16.8N 131.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.3N 128.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.6N 125.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 201800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 201800UTC 14.5N 135.6E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 211800UTC 17.1N 132.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 221800UTC 19.2N 128.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 231800UTC 21.4N 125.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS81 KBOX 201916 CCA *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 315 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT 2 PM. IN ADDITION...SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 11 FT AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND 10 FT AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. THE OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM...DIMINISHING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT AND WESTERLY. THIS REGION MAY EXPERIENCE ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT 2 PM...HIGHER SWELLS UP TO 10 FT...AND BUILDING...WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 59 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 37 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 6 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ KJC ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 201800 UTC 00HR 14.4N 135.6E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 280KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.0N 132.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 19.2N 129.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 21.2N 126.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTNT32 KNHC 202030 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND FORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...39.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 202031 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 56 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS...THESE WINDS MOST LIKELY ARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND IS BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS TYPICAL OF CYCLONES MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BERYL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND EASTERN CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH SOUTHEASTERN OF CAPE COD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 39.6N 72.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 22/0600Z 46.0N 61.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 202031 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND FORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 72.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 72.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 202032 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 123.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 123.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 202032 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS... DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET... NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ** WTNT82 KNHC 202034 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ CTC007-009-011-NYC103-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ ANZ330-350-353-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ANZ233-234-235-236-237-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 202053 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL DEBIITANDOSE GRADUALMENTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y FORT JEFFERSON. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 39.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.0 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERYL PASE CERCA O SOBRE NANTUCKET ISLAND Y EL SURESTE DE CAPE COD ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. ESTAS LLUVIAS SE EXTIENDEN BIEN AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...39.6 NORTE...72.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 202109 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL DEBILITANDOSE GRADUALMENTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y FORT JEFFERSON. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 39.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.0 OESTE O COMO A 125 MILLAS...205 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERYL PASE CERCA O SOBRE NANTUCKET ISLAND Y EL SURESTE DE CAPE COD ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. ESTAS LLUVIAS SE EXTIENDEN BIEN AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...39.6 NORTE...72.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTUS81 KOKX 202119 *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-212100- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 518 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK AND NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT... ...NEW INFORMATION... NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BUOY 44025 SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AT 2 PM. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 12 FT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WITH BEACH PATROLS REPORTING BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE MOVED ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TONIGHT TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK...AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST...ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK... BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO MONTAUK POINT...AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY SWELLS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 9 TO 12 FEET SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SHOULD BUILD AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT BY 8 AM FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FT COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND IN THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO MONTAUK POINT...AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER COULD STILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN FORECAST...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... HIGH SEAS FROM FROM BERYL ARE ALREADY PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES...WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... MONTAUK POINT...38 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY BY 11 PM EDT...OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ GOODMAN ** WTJP31 RJTD 202100 *** WARNING 202100. WARNING VALID 212100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 970 HPA AT 14.8N 134.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 17.4N 131.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 202100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 202100UTC 14.8N 134.9E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 212100UTC 17.4N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 221800UTC 19.3N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 231800UTC 21.6N 125.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTUS81 KBOX 202139 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>008-210400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 539 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS...AND IT IS SHOWING A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE STRONGEST REPORTED WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AT 5 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND. HEAVIER RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE OCEAN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE FELT OVER NANTUCKET AS THE STORM TRACKS VERY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING NEAR NANTUCKET...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...DIMINISHING AFTER 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LONGEST DURATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON NANTUCKET. A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE ON NANTUCKET AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL APPROACHES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY EXPERIENCE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM NEWPORT TO NEW BEDFORD AND WAREHAM. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FT IS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AT NANTUCKET...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT PROVINCETOWN...AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDE CYCLES...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS AFFECTING THE SOUTH COAST. AT 5 PM...HIGHER SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FT WERE REPORTED FROM BUOYS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. THESE HIGHER SWELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND FROM PROVIDENCE SOUTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 6 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 79 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 8 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 9 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ KJC ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 123.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 123.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.1N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.6N 126.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.1N 127.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.6N 129.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.5N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 123.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 202346 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...39.8 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 202352 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NORESTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y EL PUERTO DE FORT JEFFERSON. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 39.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.8 OESTE O COMO A 135 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...SE ESPERA QUE BERYL PASE CERCA O SOBRE NANTUCKET ISLAND Y EL SURESTE DE CAPE COD TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1003 MILIBARAS... 29.62 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...39.8 NORTE...71.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT82 KNHC 202355 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ CTC007-009-011-NYC103-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ ANZ330-350-353-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ANZ233-234-235-236-237-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...