** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT82 KNHC 201217 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 800 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTUS81 KBOX 201229 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-210030- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 829 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT OUR REGION WITH BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG MANY NEW ENGLAND SOUTH COAST BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH FRIDAY. SWELLS OF 6 TO 7 FEET...AND BUILDING...HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 9 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME... ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE IMPACT OF ANY SURGE WILL DEPEND WHETHER THE STORM ARRIVES DURING HIGH OR LOW TIDE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 5 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 29 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 1 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 201200 UTC 00HR 13.9N 136.2E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 280KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.4N 133.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 18.5N 129.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.0N 126.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 201200 *** WARNING 201200. WARNING VALID 211200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 980 HPA AT 14.0N 136.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 17.0N 133.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.2N 129.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.0N 126.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 201200UTC 14.0N 136.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 211200UTC 17.0N 133.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 221200UTC 19.2N 129.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 231200UTC 21.0N 126.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPZ25 KNHC 201438 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 201438 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SYMMETRIC ANNULAR- TYPE HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE ABOUT 25-30 NM IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. RECENT RAW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND CIMSS ARE BETWEEN T6.0 AND 6.5...115 TO 127 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GAINING SOME LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET KEEP ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DISCOUNTS THE GFDL SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. IT IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL GRADUALLY COOL AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...SO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. DUE TO DANIEL'S ANNULAR APPEARANCE IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES. HOWEVER...AFTER 72 HOURS DANIEL SHOULD BE TRAVERSING OVER SUB 26 DEGREE WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BE A BIT FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 12.5N 122.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W 105 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 201438 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND FORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 201438 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...RAINS FROM BERYL ALREADY AFFECTING LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...EXPECTED TO INCREASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND FORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...38.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 201439 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO... QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 38.8N 72.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 201459 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BANDAS DE LLUVIA DE BERYL AFECTANDO LONG ISLAND Y LA COSTA DE NEW ENGLAND...SE ESPERA QUE AUMENTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA DESDE EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...Y PARA EL ESTE DE LONG ISLAND AL ESTE DE FIRE ISLAND Y FORT JEFFERSON. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.7 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 220 MILLAS...355 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BERYL CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. ESTAS LLUVIAS SE EXTIENDEN BIEN AL NOROESTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM EDT...38.8 NORTE...72.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 201502 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...CORRECTED TO CHANGE FORT JEFFERSON TO PORT JEFFERSON... ...RAINS FROM BERYL ALREADY AFFECTING LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...EXPECTED TO INCREASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND PORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...38.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 201504 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 ...CORRECTED TO CHANGE FORT JEFFERSON TO PORT JEFFERSON A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND AND PORT JEFFERSON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 72.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 201500 *** WARNING 201500. WARNING VALID 211500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 980 HPA AT 14.0N 135.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 17.5N 132.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 201500UTC 14.0N 135.8E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 211500UTC 17.5N 132.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 221200UTC 19.2N 129.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 231200UTC 21.0N 126.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 201545 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON KAEMI (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST FRI JUL 21 2006 ...TYPHOON KAEMI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE AWAY FROM MICRONESIA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KAEMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 410 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 375 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 560 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TYPHOON KAEMI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. KAEMI IS EXPECTED STAY ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 130 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM MICRONESIA. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...14.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM FOR TYPHOON KAEMI AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE MICRONESIAN AREA. $$ GIBBS ** WTUS81 KOKX 201547 *** HLSOKX ANZ330-350-CTZ010>012-NYZ079-081-211600- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1147 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK AND NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK...AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST...ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO MONTAUK POINT...AND BRING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD IMPACT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD PREPARE QUICKLY FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO AROUND 11 FEET SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. DEPARTURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM DEVIATES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH COULD IMPACT A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE MAINLY MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY... MONTAUK POINT...51 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER MONTAUK POINT... 9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NEW YORK CITY...14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY BY 6 PM EDT...OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ GOODMAN ** WTUS81 KBOX 201555 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ002-004>007-008-210000- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1154 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL AND THE CHANCE IT COULD TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL BE FELT ACROSS CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSE TO NANTUCKET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAKE SURE THAT MOORINGS ARE SECURE. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO NEAR 15 FEET JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 9 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WILL AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT AND WESTERLY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME... ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE IMPACT OF ANY SURGE WILL DEPEND WHETHER THE STORM ARRIVES DURING HIGH OR LOW TIDE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS ALREADY AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT 11 AM...SWELLS UP TO 8 FEET...AND BUILDING...HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND. BUILDING SURF ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH COAST WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG MANY SOUTH COAST BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 59 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 37 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 4 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ KJC ** WTNT80 EGRR 201640 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 38.1N 73.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.07.2006 38.1N 73.4W MODERATE 00UTC 21.07.2006 39.4N 71.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 40.6N 69.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 41.5N 66.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 122.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.07.2006 12.3N 122.0W STRONG 00UTC 21.07.2006 12.9N 123.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2006 13.3N 125.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 13.7N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.7N 129.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.0N 130.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 132.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.7N 133.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.2N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.6N 136.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 17.0N 137.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.8N 138.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2006 17.5N 140.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201640 ** WTNT32 KNHC 201750 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. THESE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...39.1 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT82 KNHC 201756 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ CTC007-009-011-NYC103-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ ANZ330-350-353-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 FIRE-ISLAND-INLET-NY 40.62N 73.30W PORT-JEFFERSON-HARBOR-NY 40.95N 73.08W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ANZ233-234-235-236-237-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 NEW-HAVEN-CT 41.30N 72.90W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...