** WTNT82 KNHC 200602 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200619 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...NUEVO AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ENCUENTRA EL CENTRO DE BERYL UN POCO MAS AL OESTE DE LA POSICION ANTERIOR... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDAS PARA PARTES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 200 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.3 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS...380 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD ESTA MANANA....ESPERANDOSE UN DEBILITAMIENTO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 AM EDT...37.4 NORTE...73.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTUS81 KBOX 200624 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201300- TCPAT2 BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 224 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. THE MOTION TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN VESSELS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 11 PM THURSDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 11 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 57 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 7 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. ALSO VISIT THE NWS TAUNTON HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. $$ BELK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 200600 UTC 00HR 13.5N 137.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 134.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 18.3N 130.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.3N 126.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 13.5N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 16.4N 134.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 220600UTC 18.6N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 230600UTC 20.6N 127.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 200600 *** WARNING 200600. WARNING VALID 210600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 13.5N 137.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 16.4N 134.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 18.6N 130.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.6N 127.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 200650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER HEAD BAY, NORTH NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 200600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0605 KAEMI ANALYSIS POSITION 200600UTC 13.5N 137.7E MOVEMENT NNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 210600UTC 16.0N 134.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 220600UTC 18.0N 130.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 230600UTC 19.8N 126.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT22 KNHC 200832 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 73.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 73.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 73.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 72.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.6N 70.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.7N 67.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.5N 62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 73.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT82 KNHC 200834 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-201500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1002.060720T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-201500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1002.060720T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTNT32 KNHC 200837 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS BERYL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 295 MILES...470 KM ...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...37.8 N...73.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 200841 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8. DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 200841 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 121.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 125SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 121.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT42 KNHC 200856 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF BERYL ON THE DOVER DELAWARE WSR-88D HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A PROMINENT AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...AS THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND BERYL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A DROPSONDE IN THIS AREA ALSO MEASURED 47 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/8. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BERYL IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERLIES...WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND DRY PATCHES OF AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED WEST OF THE STORM NOW BLOWING TOWARD IT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF BERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BEYOND THAT TIME. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...SOME SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY. IF BERYL MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... ADDITIONAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 37.8N 73.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 72.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 40.6N 70.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 42.7N 67.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0600Z 45.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200909 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 500 AM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...EL CAZA HURACANES REPORTA A BERYL MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS ADICIONALES PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA PARTES DE LONG ISLAND Y LA COSTA DE NUEVA INGLATERRA MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 500 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.2 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...340 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BERYL CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1001 MILIBARAS... 29.56 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM EDT...37.8 NORTE...73.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 200900UTC 13.9N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 210900UTC 17.0N 133.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 220600UTC 18.6N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 230600UTC 20.6N 127.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 200900 *** WARNING 200900. WARNING VALID 210900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 985 HPA AT 13.9N 137.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 17.0N 133.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS81 KBOX 201004 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-211015- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 604 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 20 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 9 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED IN THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 5 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 29 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 1 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ BELK/NOCERA ** WTUS81 KBOX 201022 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201700- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 622 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 UPDATED STORM INFORMATION TO INCLUDE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN 20 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /KBOXPNSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 9 PM THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL... STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED TIDES. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM TONIGHT...AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM TONIGHT...AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ONLY SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED IN THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 5 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 2 PM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 29 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 9 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 1 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. $$ BELK/NOCERA ** WTPQ31 PGUM 201051 RRA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU JUL 20 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM KAEMI INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAEMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 310 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 300 MILES NORTH OF YAP 495 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. KAEMI IS EXPECTED STAY ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT32 KNHC 201146 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...BERYL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERYL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH BERYL. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...38.2 N...73.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 201153 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 800 AM EDT JUEVES 20 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...LA ISLA NANTUCKET Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS ADICIONALES PUDIERAN SER REQUERIDOS PARA PARTES DE LONG ISLAND Y LA COSTA DE NUEVA INGLATERRA MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 800 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 38.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.0 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...280 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 260 MILLAS...420 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PUDIERA TRAER EL CENTRO DE BERYL CERCA DE LA COSTA SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS... 29.59 PULGADAS. MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ASOCIACION CON BERYL. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 AM EDT...38.2 NORTE...73.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA