** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 200009 RRA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST THU JUL 20 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM KAEMI PASSING NORTH OF YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAEMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH OF FAIS 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 200 MILES NORTH OF YAP 435 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT22 KNHC 200020 RRA *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6...RETRANSMITTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 2100 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 ...RETRANSMITTED FOR TECH CONTROL... AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 85NE 85SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 73.5W OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 200022 RRA *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12...RETRANSMITTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 ...RETRANSMITTED FOR TECH CONTROL... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 120.4W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 120.4W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.5N 122.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 124.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAEMI 0605 (0605) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC 00HR 12.3N 138.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.1N 133.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 18.2N 129.3E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 20.2N 125.8E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTUS81 KBOX 200031 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-200430- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 830 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. THE MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN VESSELS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. ALSO VISIT THE NWS TAUNTON HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. $$ JWD ** WTJP21 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 992 HPA AT 12.4N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 15.1N 135.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 17.6N 131.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.8N 127.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 12.4N 138.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 15.1N 135.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 220000UTC 17.6N 131.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 230000UTC 19.8N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200142 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE NORESTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.1 OESTE O COMO A 290 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 365 MILLAS...585 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 125 MILLAS...200 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...36.6 NORTE...73.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTNT42 KNHC 200247 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 DESPITE REPEATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THROUGH 00Z INDICATED THAT BERYL HAD NOT STRENGTHENED ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SHIP AND AIRCRAFT DATA DO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED A BIT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/8. A NUMBER OF MODELS FROM EARLIER TODAY...INCLUDING THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND MOST PROMINENTLY THE GFDL...WERE FORECASTING A NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT DID NOT OCCUR AND THEREFORE AT 00Z WERE NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE LEFT OF THE ACTUAL POSITION. STILL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A TEMPORARY LEFTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... BERYL IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE FEELING THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ANY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ADJUSTED FOR INITIAL POSITION ERROR...KEEP THE CENTER OF BERYL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WESTERLIES. THE GFDL IS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THERE IS TIME FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BERYL WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION...A SHARP 200 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY THE TIME BERYL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE WEAKENING. FURTHER...THE REVERSAL IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESTRICT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT PASSES. CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING. REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY CONFUSION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.0N 73.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.1N 72.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 41.5N 68.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0000Z 43.7N 64.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 200248 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 125SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTNT22 KNHC 200248 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 85SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 73.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.1N 72.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 85SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.7N 64.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT82 KNHC 200250 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAC001-007-019-023-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ANZ231-232-254-255-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTNT32 KNHC 200253 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...430 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM ...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...37.0 N...73.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 200258 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006 THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DANIEL HAS NOT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EYEWALL CYCLE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KT IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 101 KT AT 2100 UTC AND ADT ESTIMATES OF T5.7...104 KT...DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. 64 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER EYEWALL FORMATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 28C ALSO SUGGEST THAN THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME AN ANNULAR-TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING HURRICANE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS UNTIL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SSTS QUICKLY DECREASE. IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY HALTED ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH MORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION...275/7. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO BASICALLY 3 CAMPS. THIS SPLIT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N124W. THE GFDL TAKES THIS LOW WESTWARD AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ENOUGH TO ALLOW RECURVATURE EAST OF 130W. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST BUT STILL ALLOW MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS WHICH MOVE THE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY AND KEEPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RELATIVELY FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. WE ARE GOING TO RELY ON THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAN THE GFDL AND STAY BETWEEN THE GFS CLUSTER AND THE EUROPEAN CLUSTER...TO THE WEST OF CONU AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.0N 121.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W 110 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200318 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT MIERCOLES 19 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE NORESTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETS DESDE PLYMOUTH HASTA WOODS HOLE...INCLUYENDO CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND Y MARTHA'S VINEYARD. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 37.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.0 OESTE O COMO A 265 MILLAS...430 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE LA CIUDAD DE NUEVA YORK Y COMO A 335 MILLAS...540 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE TARDE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE....Y SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO TARDE EN EL DIA DE MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...37.0 NORTE...73.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 121.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 121.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.2N 122.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.7N 123.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.2N 125.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.8N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 200400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 121.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 12.9N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 15.7N 134.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 220000UTC 17.6N 131.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 230000UTC 19.8N 127.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 200300 *** WARNING 200300. WARNING VALID 210300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0605 KAEMI (0605) 992 HPA AT 12.9N 138.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 15.7N 134.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 200409 RRA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAEMI (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU JUL 20 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM KAEMI INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAEMI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 260 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 215 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 210 MILES NORTH OF YAP 465 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTUS81 KBOX 200431 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1230 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. THE MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN VESSELS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARES SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 11 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF NANTUCKET MA 57 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON 7 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. ALSO VISIT THE NWS TAUNTON HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. $$ belk ** WTNT80 EGRR 200456 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.07.2006 HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 120.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.07.2006 12.2N 120.7W STRONG 12UTC 20.07.2006 12.4N 122.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 12.9N 123.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2006 13.3N 125.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 13.7N 126.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 13.7N 128.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.0N 130.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 132.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.7N 133.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 15.2N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 15.6N 136.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2006 17.0N 137.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2006 17.8N 138.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 35.9N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.07.2006 35.9N 73.0W WEAK 12UTC 20.07.2006 38.1N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 39.5N 71.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 39.9N 69.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200456 ** WTUS81 KBOX 200510 CCA *** HLSBOX ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201101- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WIND PROBABILITIES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 110 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD... NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES. THE MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN VESSELS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT 826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR. THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING INCREASES. ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF 3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... HERE ARES SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 11 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... BOSTON MA 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER BOSTON MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER HYANNIS MA 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 57 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER NANTUCKET MA 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER PROVIDENCE RI 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 7 AM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS. ALSO VISIT THE NWS TAUNTON HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. $$ BELK ** WTNT32 KNHC 200553 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 ...NEW RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER BERYL A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM ...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...37.4 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN