** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT32 KNHC 190025 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR THIRD PARAGRAPH TO SAY TROPICAL STORM BERYL ...BERYL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190034 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2A...CORREGIDO NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...CORREGIDO EN EL TERCER PARRAFO PARA DECIR TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ...BERYL MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO LOOKOUT HACIA EL NORTE AL SUR DE CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.4 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS...260 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA ULTIMA PRESION CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 800 PM EDT...33.8 NORTE...73.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 10.8N 142.4E POOR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 12.8N 139.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.8N 142.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 142.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 142.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.1N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.4N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.9N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.5N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.3N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.8N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.2N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 141.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 190227 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 118.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 118.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ45 KNHC 190227 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF 72 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W 100 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTNT22 KNHC 190232 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 73.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 190233 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT32 KNHC 190233 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...BERYL DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...73.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT82 KNHC 190243 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL NCC031-055-095-190900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-190900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ ATTN...WFO...MHX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190243 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...BERYL MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE CON UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO LOOKOUT HACIA EL NORTE AL SUR DE CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL BERYL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.6 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...215 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. BERYL SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HASTA EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM EDT...34.1 NORTE...73.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 117.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.2N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.6N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.7N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.5N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.5N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 118.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22 FEET. AT 071900, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1086 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 11.2N 141.7E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 13.3N 138.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 190346 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST WED JUL 19 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 06W MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 06W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA 355 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIS IN YAP STATE 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM 06W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM 06W IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...AND WILL BE PASSING ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF FAIS AND ULITHI THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 117.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.2N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.6N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.7N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.5N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.5N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 118.4W. AT 190000Z, HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1086 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 190420 *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-104-191200- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1220 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM. $$ MLF/JC ** WTNT80 EGRR 190453 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.07.2006 HURRICANE DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.07.2006 11.5N 117.9W MODERATE 12UTC 19.07.2006 11.9N 119.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 12.4N 121.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2006 13.2N 122.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 13.6N 124.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 14.0N 126.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.2N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 14.4N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.1N 132.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.2N 133.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.5N 135.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 14.7N 136.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2006 14.8N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 33.9N 72.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.07.2006 33.9N 72.8W WEAK 12UTC 19.07.2006 35.8N 73.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 36.6N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2006 37.4N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 38.8N 70.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 41.4N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 45.3N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190453 ** WTNT32 KNHC 190558 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 ...BERYL SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH