** WTCA42 TJSJ 181827 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 200 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE TORNA MEJOR ORGANIZADA FUERA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL SUR DE CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.4 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...340 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN LENTO GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE O NOROESTE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN AVION DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA INVESTIGANDO LA DEPRESION Y PROVEERA INFORMACION MAS PRECISA DE SU LOCALIZACION E INTENSIDAD. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MILIBARAS...29.85 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM EDT...32.8 NORTE...73.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1011 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 10.4N 144.0E POOR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 12.3N 140.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTUS82 KMHX 181846 *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-182230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...DARE AND HYDE. ...WATCHES... AT 2 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM. $$ RF ** WTPZ45 KNHC 182026 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING. ACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT ESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. SINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS AND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W 95 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 182027 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 117.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 117.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 182100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 143.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 143.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.0N 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.9N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.8N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.1N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.9N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.1N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 143.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 182040 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 73.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 73.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 73.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 33.7N 73.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 34.4N 74.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.2N 74.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.0N 74.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 42.5N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 182046 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...33.3 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT42 KNHC 182050 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... OR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05. THE GLOBAL MODELS AT 12Z AGAIN DID NOT INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE VERY WELL AND...AS A RESULT ...GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT A VERY WEAK SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN GRADUALLY TURN IT NORTHEASTWARD. UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL STATE OF THIS SYSTEM...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND THE BAM MODELS ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLIGHT S-BEND IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE MODELS WHICH INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD WESTWARD SLIGHTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONGOING RIGHT NOW BASED ON TRENDS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHT RISES TO THE EAST SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY 1 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN MOST CASES. ALTHOUGH SSTS APPEAR TO BE WARMER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS USING...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE MAY MODULATE THE NORMAL INTENSIFICATION TREND FOR A SYSTEM LIKE THIS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 33.3N 73.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 33.7N 73.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 34.4N 74.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 35.2N 74.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 36.0N 74.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 37.4N 73.4W 55 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 42.5N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT82 KNHC 182050 *** TCVAT2 TWO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NCC031-055-095-190300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-190300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ ATTN...WFO...MHX... ** WTNT62 KNHC 182056 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 455 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS... SHORTLY BEFORE 445 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46-47 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CYCLOEN ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 40 MPH IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS NEW STORM STATUS WILL BE REFLECTED IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GRAPHICS PRODUCTS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTCA42 TJSJ 182102 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT MARTES 18 DE JULIO DE 2006 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL MUY CERCA DE LA COSTA ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO LOOKOUT HACIA EL NORTE AL SUR DE CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL SUR DE CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 73.3 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS...290 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM EDT...33.3 NORTE...73.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTECNIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR STEWART ** WTNT82 KNHC 182107 *** TCVAT2 BERYL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 .TROPICAL STORM BERYL NCC031-055-095-190300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-190300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ ATTN...WFO...MHX... ** WTPQ31 PGUM 182141 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST WED JUL 19 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 06W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 255 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 330 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM 06W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 10.5N 143.7E POOR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 12.8N 140.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTUS82 KMHX 182205 *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-104-190400- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 604 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE. ...WATCHES... AT 5 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MLF/CGG ** WTPN31 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 117.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 117.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 11.9N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.3N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.8N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.7N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 182200Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 117.6W. AT 181800Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1038 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 182213 *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-104-192215- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 604 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 $$ ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE. ...WATCHES... AT 5 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MLF/CGG ** WTUS82 KMHX 182220 CCA *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-104-190400- TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 604 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE. ...WATCHES... AT 5 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ MLF/CGG ** WTNT32 KNHC 182344 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...BERYL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA