** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 10.0N 144.5E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 10.5N 142.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPZ45 KNHC 181429 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. 1200 UTC SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 63 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHERE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS APPARENT. ADDITIONALLY...DANIEL WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. SINCE FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY DIFFICULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY MARCH TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. WHILE THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 100 KT. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. DANIEL CONTINUES ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OR 270/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.2N 116.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ25 KNHC 181429 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTNT22 KNHC 181429 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 73.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT32 KNHC 181433 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT82 KNHC 181452 *** TCVAT2 TWO WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NCC031-055-095-182100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1002.060718T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ AMZ150-152-154-156-182100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1002.060718T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CURRITUCK-BEACH-LIGHT-NC 36.38N 75.83W $$ ATTN...WFO...MHX... ** WTNT42 KNHC 181454 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH INFORMATION FROM SURROUNDING BUOYS...INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 250 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 20-25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM AS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/04...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER... LONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS LIES ALONG ABOUT 35N LATITUDE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE KEYED ON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF TD-2. THAT SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MODELS THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WITH ANY REASONABLE ACCURACY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS. THE 3 GFS-BASED BAM MODELS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AND TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO THE THIS UNCERTAINTY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY INITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. IN CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 32.5N 73.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 33.3N 73.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 33.9N 74.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 34.7N 74.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 75.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 36.9N 74.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 42.0N 63.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 144.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 144.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 11.2N 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.4N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.8N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.1N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 144.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTUS82 KMHX 181530 *** HLSMHX AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-181930- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...DARE AND HYDE. ...WATCHES... AT 11 AM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM. $$ RF ** WTPQ31 PGUM 181541 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED JUL 19 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ROTA 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 10.0N 144.2E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 12.1N 140.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 116.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 116.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.2N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.3N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.5N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.8N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.6N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 181600Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 116.9W. AT 181200Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 496 NM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 181732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 115.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 11.8N 115.6W MODERATE 00UTC 19.07.2006 12.5N 118.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2006 12.5N 120.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 12.9N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2006 13.6N 123.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 14.4N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2006 14.7N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.9N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 15.1N 131.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.8N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 135.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.4N 137.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 14.4N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 74.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 31.0N 74.5W WEAK 00UTC 19.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.6N 73.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 11.6N 73.5W WEAK 00UTC 19.07.2006 11.0N 70.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2006 10.2N 69.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 10.3N 70.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2006 11.6N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 11.5N 74.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 11.5N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 11.4N 74.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2006 11.6N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 11.5N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 11.5N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 11.5N 74.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2006 11.5N 73.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181732 ** WTNT32 KNHC 181754 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTNT80 EGRR 181758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC 12UTC 18.07.2006 MESSAGE REISSUED, WITH OUR APOLOGIES. ONTENT OF FIRST TWO ENTRIES UNCHANGED, BUT THE LAST FEATURE (11.6N 73.5W AT 12UTC 18.07.2006, IS DELTED). GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 115.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 11.8N 115.6W MODERATE 00UTC 19.07.2006 12.5N 118.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2006 12.5N 120.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 12.9N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2006 13.6N 123.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 14.4N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2006 14.7N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 14.9N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 15.1N 131.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.8N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.4N 135.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.4N 137.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2006 14.4N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 74.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 31.0N 74.5W WEAK 00UTC 19.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181758