** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 09.4N 146.0E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 10.3N 143.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 180650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ45 KNHC 180833 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 DANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS ALSO DEVELOPING. 0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...CONSERVATIVELY...AT 55 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER MODESTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DANIEL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... WELL BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL PREDICTION. WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE INTENSE THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. LATEST FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL...BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS FORECASTS A WESTWARD-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 10N AND 25N...MOVING FROM NEAR 140W TO 145 FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD BEND IN DANIEL'S TRACK DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.2N 115.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 180833 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 146.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 145.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 145.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 10.8N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.0N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.4N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.0N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.1N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 145.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 180947 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W SOUTH OF GUAM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM 275 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA 340 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN 345 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 09.5N 145.0E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 10.4N 143.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 114.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.2N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.2N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.2N 120.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 181000Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 115.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. AT 071806 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 445 NM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.//