** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 146.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 146.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.8N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.4N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.1N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.8N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.7N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 146.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MEASURING APPROXIMATELY 360 NM ACROSS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 171421Z JUL 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171430 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 180236 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DISPLAY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT. THE STORM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 270/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND POSSIBLY BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 125W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE LATER PERIODS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.3N 114.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPZ25 KNHC 180236 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.1W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.1W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA ** WTPQ31 PGUM 180319 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 120 PM GUAM LST TUE JUL 18 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W HAS FORMED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM 305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA 360 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN 370 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 113.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 113.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.3N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.3N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.3N 118.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 12.4N 120.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 12.8N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 114.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 14 FEET. AT 071800, TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 840 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 14 FEET. // ** WTNT80 EGRR 180453 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 113.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2006 12.1N 113.4W MODERATE 12UTC 18.07.2006 12.8N 115.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2006 12.6N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2006 12.9N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2006 13.3N 121.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2006 14.0N 122.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2006 14.8N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2006 15.1N 125.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 15.3N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2006 15.2N 128.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2006 14.8N 130.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2006 14.7N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2006 14.8N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180453