** WTPZ25 KNHC 172031 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 2100 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 172032 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED ABOUT THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AND COMPRISED OF DEEPER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 41 KT FROM UW CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WESTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AT 270/09. THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR DANIEL WILL BE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING DANIEL TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING. THIS ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN SHOULD PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFS DOES SHOW SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 24 HOURS BUT I WOULD RATHER SEE THE PRESENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THIS TO BE A FACTOR. THERE IS SEEMINGLY NO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO RESTRICT THIS CYCLONE...AND THIS PHILOSOPHY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH TAKES DANIEL TO A STRONG CAT TWO HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 70 KT FROM SHIPS...96 KT FROM THE GFDL...AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH PEAK THE INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.4N 112.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W 95 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W 95 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 112.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 112.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.4N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.4N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.4N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 12.4N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 12.7N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.2N 124.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 172200Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 112.8W. AT 171800Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 767 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.//