** WTPZ25 KNHC 171417 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 1500 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 85SE 85SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ45 KNHC 171417 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 33 KT AND 1005 MB FROM A 17/0903Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO STILL BE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT. SYMPATHETIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL BETWEEN IT AND THE REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TYPE OF RIDGING PATTERN TO PERSIST... WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN 5 KT...THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS TYPE OF LOW-SHEAR PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTER... USUALLY WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...YET THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL UP 67 KT IN 72 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL MAKES DANIEL A 100 KT HURRICANE BY THE SAME TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS...BUT DANIEL IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION THE PAST DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.4N 112.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN21 PGTW 171430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171421Z JUL 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 148.8E TO 10.8N 143.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 171130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- EAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170756Z WINDSATMICROWAVE PASS SHOW FLARING CONVECTION CONSOL- IDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICA- TION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181430Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 112.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 112.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.6N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.6N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.6N 116.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.7N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.9N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 171600Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 112.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 171430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171421Z JUL 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 148.8E TO 10.8N 143.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 171130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH- EAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170756Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS SHOW FLARING CONVECTION CONSOL- IDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICA- TION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181430Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 171652 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.07.2006 11.9N 111.6W WEAK 00UTC 18.07.2006 12.3N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2006 12.3N 116.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.07.2006 12.6N 118.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2006 12.6N 119.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 12.9N 121.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2006 13.0N 122.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2006 12.9N 123.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2006 12.6N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.07.2006 12.9N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.07.2006 12.5N 127.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.07.2006 12.9N 129.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.07.2006 13.3N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171652