** WTIN20 DEMS 170622 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ25 KNHC 170828 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0900 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 170828 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006 THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND LACKS A CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT...BUT THESE ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE...ONCE THE SYSTEM ACQUIRES AN INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DECREASE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NEAR/OVER COOLER WATERS... PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SOMEWHAT NORTH OF MY PROJECTED TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE LATTER MODEL AT DAYS 3-5. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 12 KT. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN THE VICINITY OF 115-120W. OTHERWISE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE FORTHCOMING. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON 5-E. THE U.K. MODEL ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS UNABLE TO TRACK A DISTINCT CENTER WHILE THE NOGAPS SPLITS THE SYSTEM IN TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A COHERENT STRUCTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND DEEP/MEDIUM BAM PREDICTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.4N 111.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 111.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 111.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.7N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.8N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.9N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 171000Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 111.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.