** WTPZ25 KNHC 170231 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 170234 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTS CARLOTTA AS A LARGE DISTINCT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM THE CYCLONE FOR 24 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND 10 KT...BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CARLOTTA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 20.9N 123.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 21.3N 124.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 126.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.4N 128.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 170235 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 123.5W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 123.5W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N 124.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.4N 126.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.4N 128.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 123.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 170238 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 THE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. CLOUD TOPS IN CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER ARE BETWEEN -70C AND -80C...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS ARE STILL RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SHIP PFSK REPORTED 23 KT WINDS ABOUT 115 N MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINING WITH THE REMNANTS OF BUD AND CARLOTTA TO CREATE A LARGE HOLE IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AND FILL THE HOLE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD FORCE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS... EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY FOR FIVE DAYS. SINCE THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION...THIS LACK OF MOTION IS PUZZLING. IT COULD BE RELATED TO THE NOGAPS NOT DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE ENOUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR FIVE DAYS WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION FROM 13 KT TO 8 KT...AND IT IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS... UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NOGAPS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL FORECASTS LIGHT SHEAR. DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 65 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES 96 HR TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KT IN 72 HR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY LEVELS OFF AT THAT TIME SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST WATER... ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPN32 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/170330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 123.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 123.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 21.3N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.4N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.4N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 124.0W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/161421ZJUL2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/162135JUL2006// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/ REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 109.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 109.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.6N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.8N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.9N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.9N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 13.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 170400Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 110.5W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 161421Z JUL 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 161430) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 170455 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.07.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 122.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.07.2006 20.8N 122.8W WEAK 12UTC 17.07.2006 21.2N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2006 21.3N 126.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION IN THE 00Z UK GLOBAL MODEL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E (ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052006) FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE FOLLOWING ADVISORY IS GENERATED FROM T+36: NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.3N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2006 10.3N 114.0W WEAK 00UTC 19.07.2006 9.9N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2006 9.6N 116.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170455