** WTPZ44 KNHC 162031 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...THE INABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/10. OWING TO ITS NOW VERTICALLY SHALLOW STRUCTURE...CARLOTTA WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ24 KNHC 162031 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 122.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPN32 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 122.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 122.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.8N 123.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.1N 125.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.1N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 21.1N 129.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 122.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.//