** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTPZ44 KNHC 161407 ***
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006
 
EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...CARLOTTA HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12-18
HOURS.  THE REMAINING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE UW CIMMS
AODT ESTIMATE OF 28 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
285/10.  WITH THE CYCLONE QUICKLY BECOMING VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT
SHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 20.2N 121.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 


** WTPZ24 KNHC 161407 ***
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
1500 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 121.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..125NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 121.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 121.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
 


** WTNT80 EGRR 161643 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.07.2006

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA   ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 120.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.07.2006  20.0N 120.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 17.07.2006  20.8N 122.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.07.2006  20.9N 125.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.07.2006  20.9N 126.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.07.2006        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 161643