** WTIN20 DEMS 160610 ***

            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
            ------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL  CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-07-2006 (.) 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY 
OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID  FOR NEXT 24 HOURS 
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) 

CONVECTIVE  CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER  CENTRAL AND ADJOINING  EAST 
CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN  SEA (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA  RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER THE
INDIAN REGION (.) 




** WTPZ24 KNHC 160832 ***
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
0900 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 120.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 120.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 125.9W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 120.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


** WTPZ44 KNHC 160832 ***
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

CARLOTTA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VIA THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY... C.I. ... NUMBERS ARE INVARIABLY TOO
HIGH IN THESE CASES.  USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T- AND C.I. NUMBERS
USUALLY GIVES A MORE REASONABLE RESULT.  TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE
VALUES FROM THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION GIVES 40 KT...AND EVEN THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.  IN ANY EVENT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN
OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.9N 120.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 122.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 125.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH