** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ24 KNHC 160230 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 119.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 119.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ44 KNHC 160231 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 CARLOTTA CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING..AND IS ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...THESE VALUES ARE DUE MOSTLY TO THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE TECHNIQUE. 3-HOUR AVERAGED ODT NUMBERS YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 45 KT. BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS COMBINED WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION AT 280/10. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MEAN FLOW ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. BASED UPON A SHIP...ELT27...LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA... ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MADE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.7N 119.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.2N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPN32 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 119.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 119.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.9N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.1N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.2N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.2N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 120.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 160442 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.07.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 134.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.07.2006 20.9N 134.7W WEAK 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 118.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.6N 118.5W MODERATE 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.1N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2006 21.1N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 21.1N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2006 21.4N 127.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160442