** WTNT80 EGRR 151714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.07.2006 HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 116.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.0N 116.7W MODERATE 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.6N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.0N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2006 20.4N 123.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 20.1N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2006 20.3N 127.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 19.3N 129.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 132.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 20.5N 132.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.07.2006 20.8N 135.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151714 ** WTPZ43 KNHC 152031 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 BUD IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13 KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BUD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 21.1N 134.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 152031 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 152032 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 133.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 134.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 152032 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS BECOME SEPERATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CARLOTTA HAS SUCCUMED TO COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOTTA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/09. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DUE TO A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.4N 118.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/152135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 134.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 134.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 135.0W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/152130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 016 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 04E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 118.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 118.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.6N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.8N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.8N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.8N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.9W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 152243 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR HEADERS OF HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCTS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 134.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 133.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 134.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 152244 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 ...CORRECTED FOR HEADERS OF HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCTS... BUD IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13 KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BUD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 21.1N 134.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA