** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 151421 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 BUD HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND CURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BUD IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES OVER COLD WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 20.6N 132.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 151421 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 1500 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 132.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 138.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 151426 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA CONTINUE TO WARM INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING. STILL...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IMPLYING CARLOTTA IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB TO 4.0 OR 65 KT FROM AFWA. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE CARLOTTA BEING A 77 KT HURRICANE GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT IN LINE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAW ODT VALUES. WHILE SATELLITE BASED SST ESTIMATES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MARGINALLY WARM WATER IN THE VICINITY OF CARLOTTA...THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING MAKING CARLOTTA A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/09. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CARLOTTA CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME POLEWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A DUE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH THE BAM SHALLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.8N 117.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 151426 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 1500 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 151714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.07.2006 HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 116.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.0N 116.7W MODERATE 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.6N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.0N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2006 20.4N 123.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 20.1N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2006 20.3N 127.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 19.3N 129.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 132.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 20.5N 132.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.07.2006 20.8N 135.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151714 ** WTNT80 EGRR 151714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.07.2006 HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 116.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.0N 116.7W MODERATE 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.6N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.0N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2006 20.4N 123.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 20.1N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.07.2006 20.3N 127.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 19.3N 129.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 132.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.07.2006 20.5N 132.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.07.2006 20.8N 135.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151714