** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 26.2N 114.7E 992HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC 00HR 26.2N 114.7E 992HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 150600UTC 27N 115E MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 150600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TD 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 150600UTC 27.4N 115.1E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 150650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ------- ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150700 UTC 00HR 26.2N 114.5E 989HPA 16M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 150830 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 AFTER ITS UNEXPECTED COMEBACK YESTERDAY EVENING...CARLOTTA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C NEAR ITS CENTER. HOWEVER...AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES....NOR WAS AN EYE EVIDENT ON A 0316 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0316 UTC. NONETHELESS... DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH WIND SPEED ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE BUT IT IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER CARLOTTA'S WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DAILY NCEP SST ANALYSES SHOW A PATCH OF UNUSUALLY COOL WATERS...NEAR 21 DEG C...IN THE VICINITY OF 19N 125W. THIS COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CARLOTTA MIGHT DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/9. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PREDICT A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL IS PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF CARLOTTA IN THESE MODELS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEREAS THIS VORTEX INTERACTION MAY INDEED OCCUR...WE WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...OR OF COURSE A SIGNIFICANT LEFT TURN...BEFORE SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK... WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.3N 119.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 123.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 150830 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0900 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 150832 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0900 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 131.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 131.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150800 UTC 00HR 26.1N 114.4E 989HPA 16M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 019 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 130.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 130.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.6N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.9N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.0N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151000Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 131.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150930JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 116.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 116.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 19.2N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.3N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.5N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 117.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//