** WTPQ20 BABJ 142300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142300 UTC 00HR 26.6N 115.5E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP22 RJTD 150000 *** WARNING 150000. WARNING VALID 160000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 27.3N 115.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 28.3N 114.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 27.7N 111.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 150000UTC 27.3N 115.8E POOR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160000UTC 27.7N 111.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 26.6N 115.4E 989HPA 18M/S P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 26.4N 113.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 150000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 150000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 6 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND 5.REMARKS THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON TS 0604 BILIS (0604).= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150100 UTC 00HR 26.6N 115.3E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 150231 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...CARLOTTA HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR THE CENTER...AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...CARLOTTA IS UPGRADED TO A 70-KT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS POOR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE STORM IS ALSO APPROACHING THE NORMAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STAY PRESENT NORTH OF CARLOTTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THE WESTWARD MOTION AS CARLOTTA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL CALLS FOR A SOUTHWARD MOTION...THE UKMET A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... AND THE BAMS A FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD MOTION OF 6-8 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. CARLOTTA SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES FROM NCEP IN WASHINGTON DC SHOW A COLD WATER EDDY AHEAD OF CARLOTTA...AND IF THE STORM PASSES OVER THIS FEATURES IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.9N 115.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ24 KNHC 150231 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 150232 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 150232 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0300 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 130.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 130.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 129.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 150242 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD TRACK IN LAST SENTENCE... THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A TRACK SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150200 UTC 00HR 26.3N 115.2E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150300 UTC 00HR 26.3N 115.2E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 013 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 115.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 115.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.2N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.5N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.5N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.5N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.5N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 19.5N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 115.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 20.2N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.4N 134.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.5N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 20.5N 139.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.5N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150400Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 130.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 150300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 150300UTC 27.4N 115.4E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 160300UTC 27.7N 110.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150400 UTC 00HR 26.4N 115.0E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 150500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 114.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.07.2006 18.5N 114.6W MODERATE 12UTC 15.07.2006 18.6N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.2N 118.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 19.3N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2006 19.3N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 19.6N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.07.2006 19.7N 125.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 129.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.0N 129.1W WEAK 12UTC 15.07.2006 20.5N 132.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 21.3N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 22.6N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150500 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 150500 UTC 00HR 26.3N 114.9E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 10KM/H=