** WTPQ21 RJTD 141800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 141800UTC 26.8N 117.0E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 151800UTC 27.7N 113.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 141800 *** WARNING 141800. WARNING VALID 151800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 26.8N 117.0E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 27.6N 115.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 27.7N 113.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 26.8N 116.4E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 141800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 141800UTC 26.8N 117.0E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 150600UTC 27.2N 115.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141900 UTC 00HR 26.8N 116.3E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 142031 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT 60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 142031 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 142031 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 128.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 100SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 128.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ44 KNHC 142031 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT 60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 142031 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 142032 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT ABOUT 12 KT. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY. A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142000 UTC 00HR 26.7N 116.2E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 142100 *** WARNING 142100. WARNING VALID 152100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 990 HPA AT 27.1N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 27.9N 115.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 27.5N 112.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 142100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 142100UTC 27.1N 116.4E POOR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 152100UTC 27.5N 112.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC 00HR 26.6N 116.1E 995HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC 00HR 26.6N 116.1E 995HPA 18M/S P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 26.5N 113.2E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142100 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142100 UTC 00HR 26.6N 116.1E 988HPA 18M/S P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 26.5N 113.2E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 142200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 142200 UTC 00HR 26.6N 115.7E 989HPA 18M/S= P12HR W 15KM/H=