** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 27.0N 117.6E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 27.0N 117.6E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 29.1N 112.7E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 141200 *** WARNING 141200. WARNING VALID 151200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 26.7N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 27.2N 116.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 27.4N 114.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 141200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 141200UTC 26.7N 118.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 151200UTC 27.4N 114.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141300 UTC 00HR 27.0N 117.4E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 141345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 141200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 141428 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 THE NORTHERN HALF OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION IS OVER COOL WATERS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)...LATEST VERSION...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS AVERAGED NUMBERS AROUND 3.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 65 KNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS WE SPEAK. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 18.4N 113.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 141429 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A STABLE AIRMASS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77 KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES. DATA T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT. AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 141429 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 141429 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 100SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141400 UTC 00HR 27.1N 117.2E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 141500 *** WARNING 141500. WARNING VALID 151500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 26.8N 117.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 27.3N 115.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 27.4N 114.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 141500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 141500UTC 26.8N 117.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 151500UTC 27.4N 114.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141500 UTC 00HR 26.9N 116.9E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/141530JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 113.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 113.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.8N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.0N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 113.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. AT 141200Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 772 NM W OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 141640 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 126.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.07.2006 19.7N 126.3W MODERATE 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.3N 129.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 21.1N 131.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 21.9N 134.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 113.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.07.2006 17.8N 113.2W MODERATE 00UTC 15.07.2006 18.3N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.0N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.8N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.1N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.07.2006 20.8N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141640 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141600 UTC 00HR 26.9N 116.6E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 141645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 141500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 141500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141700 UTC 00HR 26.9N 116.5E 987HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=