** WTIN20 DEMS 140630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ------- ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 26.5N 119.6E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.4N 116.1E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 27.0N 112.8E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 140600 *** WARNING 140600. WARNING VALID 150600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 980 HPA AT 26.3N 119.3E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 26.9N 117.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 27.4N 115.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 140600UTC 26.3N 119.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150600UTC 27.4N 115.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 140600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 140600UTC 26.3N 119.3E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 141800UTC 27.5N 117.7E WITHIN 65NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 24HR POSITION 150600UTC 28.4N 115.7E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 140600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140700 UTC 00HR 26.4N 119.3E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 140825 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0339 UTC STILL SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL WITH A WEAKER REFLECTION AT 37 GHZ. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A POORLY-FORECAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG ABOUT 117W IS STILL UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE AND DISRUPTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IN THE INNER CORE. OCCASIONALLY A WARM SPOT TRIES TO EMERGE FROM WITHIN THE RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE FEATURE IS SHORT-LIVED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST WIND SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SINCE COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TOO QUICKLY AND SSTS ARE DROPPING...IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO SHIPS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. CARLOTTA HAS ALSO SLOWED...MOVING ABOUT 275/7. PERHAPS THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION HAS TRULY COMMENCED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND IS BETWEEN CONU AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A 0206 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.1N 112.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.2N 114.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 116.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 118.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 18.8N 120.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 140826 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 140833 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING OF BUD. THE HURRICANE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C...AND ONLY A FEW CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50C REMAIN. THE INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WEAKENS DURING PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SST GRADIENT IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AT 06Z WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. WITH THE CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE DECLINE...THE 09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...AND BUD WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION NEAR THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. BUD IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 KT...STEERED BY THE DEPENDABLE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TURN THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ABOUT 22N...AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS THAT RETAIN A CIRCULATION...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 19.5N 125.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 20.1N 127.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 21.5N 133.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.8N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.0N 150.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ23 KNHC 140833 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 125.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 125.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.5N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 135.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.0N 150.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 125.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 119.0E 982HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 26.4N 119.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 119.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 27.4N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 28.1N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 118.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE POSITION EST- IMATES AND 140600Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF TS 05W MADE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND EAST CHINA SEA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 15 FEET.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140900 UTC 00HR 26.7N 118.5E 982HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 113.8E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 140900UTC 26.6N 118.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 150900UTC 27.4N 115.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 140900 *** WARNING 140900. WARNING VALID 150900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 980 HPA AT 26.6N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 27.1N 116.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 27.4N 115.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141000 UTC 00HR 26.8N 118.1E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 125.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 125.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.1N 127.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.9N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.5N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.8N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 22.0N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.0N 150.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141000Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 126.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 27 FEET. AT 140600Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 888 NM WSW OF LA PAZ, MEXICO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 140900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 141045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 140900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN32 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140930JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 112.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 112.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.2N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.4N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.6N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.8N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.5N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 141000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 113.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 27 FEET. AT 140600Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 720 NM W OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 141100 UTC 00HR 26.9N 117.8E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H=