** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 25.4N 120.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.7N 116.5E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 27.5N 113.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 140000 *** WARNING 140000. WARNING VALID 150000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 25.7N 120.5E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 26.8N 118.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 27.3N 116.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.2N 113.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 25.7N 120.5E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 270NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 150000UTC 27.3N 116.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 160000UTC 28.2N 113.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 140000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140100 UTC 00HR 25.7N 120.4E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 480 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 330 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 480 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 330 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 140231 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 140233 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF TOPS COLDER THAN -70C REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A VERY POORLY-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WHILE CARLOTTA RETAINS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 117W ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HURRICANE... UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THIS MAY BE CREATING SOME SHEAR THAT HAS STOPPED INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N132W. HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA...WHILE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 22N117W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA TO A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND KEEP IT GOING GENERALLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ALL DEVELOP ONE OR MORE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH THE RESULT THAT THE GFS LOSES THE STORM WITHIN 72 HR. WHILE THESE NEW STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL NOT FORM IN TIME TO AFFECT CARLOTTA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. CARLOTTA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR. SINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN...BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.1N 112.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.8N 119.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 140235 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0300 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 124.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 124.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140200 UTC 00HR 26.0N 120.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 140237 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A COMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW DEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS TRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPN32 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 25.7N 120.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 120.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.6N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.3N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 119.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140300 UTC 00HR 26.3N 120.2E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 140300 *** WARNING 140300. WARNING VALID 150300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 25.9N 120.1E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 26.8N 118.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 27.3N 115.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 140300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 140300UTC 25.9N 120.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 270NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 150300UTC 27.3N 115.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 160000UTC 28.2N 113.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140330JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 111.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 111.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.4N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.6N 117.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.8N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140400Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 112.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. AT 140000Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 58 NM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 123.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 123.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.6N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.2N 131.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.6N 134.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 22.0N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.0N 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 124.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 24 FEET. AT 140000Z HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 733 NM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140400 UTC 00HR 26.6N 120.0E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 420 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 140445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 140300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 420 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 140507 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.07.2006 HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 112.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.5N 112.4W MODERATE 12UTC 14.07.2006 18.2N 114.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 18.9N 116.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.4N 117.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 19.8N 120.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 123.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.07.2006 18.6N 123.5W MODERATE 12UTC 14.07.2006 18.8N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2006 19.2N 129.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 21.1N 131.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140507 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 140500 UTC 00HR 26.6N 119.8E 975HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=