** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 25.0N 121.5E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 118.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 27.7N 115.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 25.0N 121.5E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 118.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 27.7N 115.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 25.0N 121.5E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 118.5E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 27.7N 115.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 131800 *** WARNING 131800. WARNING VALID 141800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 25.5N 121.1E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 26.7N 119.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 27.5N 117.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.0N 114.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 131800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 131800UTC 25.5N 121.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 141800UTC 27.5N 117.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 151800UTC 28.0N 114.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 131800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 131800UTC 25.5N 121.0E MOVEMENT WNW 14KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 141800UTC 27.2N 117.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 36HR POSITION 150600UTC 28.3N 115.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131900 UTC 00HR 25.1N 121.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 131945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 132000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 132000 UTC 00HR 25.1N 121.1E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 132029 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MADE A COME BACK...JUST A LITTLE...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE SHEAR EFFECT FROM BUD'S OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN A BANDING TYPE EYE TRYING TO FORM AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. ON THIS BASIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE. CARLOTTA IS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL TO HAVE AN OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION THERE. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKNESS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND NOT WITH THE GFS WHICH DISSIPATES CARLOTTA QUICKLY AND FORMS A NEW CYCLONE TO THE EAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.8N 111.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 132029 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ43 KNHC 132035 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 90-102 KT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S MOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15 KT. BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS DOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE PULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 132035 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPN32 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 25.2N 121.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 121.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.7N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.1N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 26.4N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 120.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 25.2N 121.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 121.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.7N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.1N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 26.4N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 120.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 132100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 132100 UTC 00HR 25.1N 120.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.1N 116.9E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 27.5N 113.6E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 132100 *** WARNING 132100. WARNING VALID 142100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 25.6N 120.8E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 26.6N 118.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 27.4N 116.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 132100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 132100UTC 25.6N 120.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 270NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 142100UTC 27.4N 116.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 151800UTC 28.0N 114.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 131800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 AT 1800 13 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BILIS)(0604) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FIVE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CETRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METRES PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FIVE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE FIVE ZEDRO KILOMETERS ELSEWHER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 141800 TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONHE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM ARE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/132130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 110.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 110.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.4N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.6N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.5N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 111.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 22 FEET. AT 131800 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 374 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/132135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 122.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 122.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.2N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.3N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.2N 131.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 22.0N 133.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 22.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 123.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. AT 071318 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 661 NM W OF SOCORRO_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/132130JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 110.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 110.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.4N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.6N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 19.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.5N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 111.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 22 FEET. AT 131800 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 374 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/132135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 122.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 122.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.2N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.3N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.2N 131.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 22.0N 133.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 22.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 123.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. AT 071318 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 661 NM W OF SOCORRO_ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 132200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 132200 UTC 00HR 25.2N 120.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 132245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 132100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 132245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 132100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 132300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 132300 UTC 00HR 25.3N 120.7E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H=