** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.3N 122.5E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.2N 119.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 27.5N 116.7E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 28.3N 114.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 24.8N 122.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 26.5N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 151200UTC 27.2N 114.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 24.8N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 25.8N 120.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 26.5N 118.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 27.2N 114.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131300 UTC 00HR 24.5N 122.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN32 PGTW 131500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.9N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.9N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.7N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 121.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 131436 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 CARLOTTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM BUD IS AFFECTING CARLOTTA AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER... PRIMARILY WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY THEN...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.3N 110.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ24 KNHC 131436 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 1500 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131400 UTC 00HR 24.7N 122.1E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 131438 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU SUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT. INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100 KT. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36 HOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 120 HOURS. THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS. FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS BUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL. BUD IS PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA ** WTPZ23 KNHC 131438 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 1500 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 122.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 122.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 24.9N 121.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 25.4N 121.5E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 26.7N 117.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 151200UTC 27.2N 114.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 131500 *** WARNING 131500. WARNING VALID 141500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 25.4N 121.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 26.2N 120.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 26.7N 117.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 122.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 122.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.0N 124.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.1N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 21.0N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.5N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 22.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.0N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 131600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 122.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 29 FEET. AT 071312 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 1267 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131600 UTC 00HR 24.9N 121.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131330JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 109.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 110.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.7N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.0N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.2N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 131600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 111.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 22 FEET. AT 071312 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 603 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPQ20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 131714 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.07.2006 HURRICANE BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 120.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2006 17.9N 120.8W STRONG 00UTC 14.07.2006 19.0N 124.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 19.4N 127.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.0N 129.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 20.0N 132.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 110.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.07.2006 16.0N 110.5W MODERATE 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.8N 112.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 18.5N 114.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 18.9N 116.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 19.4N 119.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 20.3N 121.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 20.4N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131714 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131700 UTC 00HR 25.0N 121.7E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=