** WTIN20 DEMS 130628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ------- ** WTIN20 DEMS 130628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ------- ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 23.6N 123.4E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.5N 120.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.9N 116.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 27.5N 114.2E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 23.7N 123.1E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 25.5N 119.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 150600UTC 26.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 160600UTC 27.4N 113.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 970 HPA AT 23.7N 123.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.6N 121.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 25.5N 119.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 26.5N 116.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 27.4N 113.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 23.6N 123.1E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 25.6N 120.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 150600UTC 27.3N 116.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130700 UTC 00HR 23.7N 123.2E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 380 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130800 UTC 00HR 23.7N 123.0E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 130836 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 130849 *** TCMEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ44 KNHC 130849 *** TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 A 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS DEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT THAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE HURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE OCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE POKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN BETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR 29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS DIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD BEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE BASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY COMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM MOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE HURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS CARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W 100 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 130858 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER... SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS 290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 123.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 123.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.9N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.0N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 26.9N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 27.7N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 122.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.9N 119.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 26.5N 117.0E 995HPA 20M/S P+72HR 27.7N 113.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 130900 *** WARNING 130900. WARNING VALID 140900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 970 HPA AT 24.4N 122.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 25.4N 120.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 26.0N 118.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 24.4N 122.7E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 425NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 26.0N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 160600UTC 27.4N 113.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130935JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 119.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 119.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.4N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.5N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.4N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.9N 130.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 20.5N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: 131000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 120.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 130600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 14 AT 0600 13 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BILIS) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI CIRCLE FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 140600 TWO FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 150600 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE SIX POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER FORECAST TO WEATHER MANILA . WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130930JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 108.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 108.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.9N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.3N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 131000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 109.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131000 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.8E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131000 UTC 00HR 24.0N 122.7E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 131100 UTC 00HR 24.2N 122.7E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=