** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 123.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 120.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.9N 117.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 27.3N 115.0E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 970 HPA AT 23.0N 123.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 23.8N 122.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 25.2N 121.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 27.0N 117.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.2N 114.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 23.0N 123.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 25.2N 121.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 150000UTC 27.0N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 160000UTC 28.2N 114.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130100 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 130231 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ44 KNHC 130233 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 CARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15. CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT. BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT. THE UKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES THAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE NEW TRACK IS NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 130234 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0300 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 118.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80 OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF 5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W SHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130200 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.5N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.5N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.4N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 27.2N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 123.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 23.3N 123.6E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 25.5N 119.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 150000UTC 27.0N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 160000UTC 28.2N 114.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 970 HPA AT 23.3N 123.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 24.2N 121.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 25.5N 119.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/122135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 118.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 118.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.0N 120.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.1N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 20.7N 127.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.0N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 21.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 119.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 26 FEET. AT 071300 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 427 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO TS 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/122130JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 107.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 107.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.9N 109.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.5N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 17.7N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 17.8N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 108.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 17 FEET. AT 071300 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 249 NM SW OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130400 UTC 00HR 23.4N 123.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 130513 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 106.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.07.2006 15.8N 106.6W WEAK 12UTC 13.07.2006 15.9N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.1N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 17.5N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 117.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.07.2006 16.6N 117.8W MODERATE 12UTC 13.07.2006 18.2N 120.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 20.0N 124.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 20.5N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.8N 129.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130513 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 130500 UTC 00HR 23.5N 123.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=