** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 22.2N 124.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.9N 120.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.2N 118.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 26.4N 115.1E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 22.0N 124.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.0N 122.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.1N 120.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 26.0N 117.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 26.8N 113.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 22.0N 124.3E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 24.1N 120.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 141800UTC 26.0N 117.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 151800UTC 26.8N 113.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 121800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 121800UTC 22.0N 124.3E MOVEMENT NW 4KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 131800UTC 23.9N 121.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 141800UTC 25.5N 118.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT 60HR POSITION 150600UTC 26.5N 116.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PHNC 121600 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/121530JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 104.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 104.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.0N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.6N 109.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.5N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 121600Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTPZ23 KNHC 122031 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.2N 119.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 124.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ44 KNHC 122032 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT. CARLOTTA IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LACKS MUCH OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATION VALUES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA. A WARM WATER/LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR CARLOTTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE SO-CALLED ICON. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD I EXPECT CARLOTTA TO BE TRAVERSING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS...AND TO BE WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY. THE CENTER IS EASIER TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...NONETHELESS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...290/12. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA...WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 30N-35N...SHOULD PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS UNREALISTIC. IN PARTICULAR...THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL INTEGRATION DEPICTS A DECOUPLING OF CARLOTTA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE 500 MB CENTER MOVING OFF TO THE WEST AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER MEANDERING AND WEAKENING NEAR 110W LONGITUDE. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNREALISTIC FOR SUCH A LARGE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND SO THE U.K. MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS PACKAGE. . WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.3N 106.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ24 KNHC 122032 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ43 KNHC 122037 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 BUD HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN EYE FEATURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 90 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THIS PEAK INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A 14Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SMALLER WIND RADII AND THE IN ITAL AND FORECAST VALUES REFLECT THIS NEW WIND FIELD DATA. THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED...13 KT...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE HEADING CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST. STEERING CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SUBSEQUENTLY A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE HURRICANE AND LOSES THE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 117.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 17.2N 119.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 124.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPN32 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 22.2N 124.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 124.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.2N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.2N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.0N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.8N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.1N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 123.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH- EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 05W HAS SLOWED AS A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 22.4N 124.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.9N 120.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.5N 117.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 26.7N 114.8E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 970 HPA AT 22.5N 124.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 23.6N 122.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 24.6N 121.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 22.5N 124.3E FAIR MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST 30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 24.6N 121.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 141800UTC 26.0N 117.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 151800UTC 26.8N 113.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/122130JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 105.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 105.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.8N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.3N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.7N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.5N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 122200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 106.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. AT 071218 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 251 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/122135JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 116.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 116.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.2N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.4N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.5N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 20.1N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.0N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 122200Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 117.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. AT 071218 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED 375 NM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS.