** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 21.8N 124.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 122.3E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 26.6N 120.1E 985HPA 27M/S P+72HR 28.0N 117.6E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 21.6N 124.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 23.9N 120.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 141200UTC 25.7N 116.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 151200UTC 26.6N 111.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 21.6N 124.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 22.9N 122.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 23.9N 120.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 25.7N 116.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 26.6N 111.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 121428 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ34 KNHC 121428 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 ...CARLOTTA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...510 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE CARLOTTA OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE DIMINISHING AS CARLOTTA MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.5 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CARLOTTA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ44 KNHC 121429 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 CARLOTTA IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED BANDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS...INDICATES 13-15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT AND THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN ABOUT 3 DAYS WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE STEERING SCENARIO IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. CARLOTTA IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTERLY HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.5N 105.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 121446 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 116.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 116.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPZ43 KNHC 121449 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 SINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE VARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE STEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPN32 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 124.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 124.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.8N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.7N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.1N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.9N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.0N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 124.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC 00HR 21.9N 124.5E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 21.9N 124.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 23.0N 122.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 23.9N 120.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 21.9N 124.6E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 23.9N 120.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 141200UTC 25.7N 116.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 151200UTC 26.6N 111.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 12 JULY TYPHOON (BILIS) {0604} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX EAST FORE- CAST TO MOVED NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR ZERO ZERO ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 TWO THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE EAST AT 141200 TWO SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 121600 UTC 00HR 22.0N 124.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 121722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 104.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2006 13.7N 104.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.07.2006 15.2N 106.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 16.4N 108.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.2N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 17.7N 110.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 116.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.7N 116.2W MODERATE 00UTC 13.07.2006 16.3N 118.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 17.3N 119.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 19.2N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 20.0N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.7N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 21.5N 130.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121722