** WTIN20 DEMS 120628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 21.3N 125.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.7N 122.9E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 26.0N 120.6E 985HPA 27M/S P+72HR 27.5N 118.5E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 21.3N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 22.4N 123.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.5N 120.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 25.0N 116.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 25.8N 112.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 21.3N 125.3E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 23.5N 120.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 140600UTC 25.0N 116.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 150600UTC 25.8N 112.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 21.3N 125.3E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.7N 122.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 25.2N 119.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 26.8N 116.1E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 120845 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.7N 117.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 124.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ34 KNHC 120845 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 ...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OUTER RAINBANDS ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN RIVIERA FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.1 N...103.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ44 KNHC 120846 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING THE BURST IS TURNING INTO A BANDING FEATURE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA AND INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER PROVIDING WEAK INITIAL AND FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES SUGGEST THERE IS ABOUT A 40-55% CHANCE OF THE INTENSITY INCREASING BY AT LEAST 25 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR... WARM SSTS NEAR 30C AND IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE CARLOTTA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BEYOND THEN IS LIKELY UNTIL SSTS DECREASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THIS DIMINISHING EFFECT IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE BUD TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0119 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A 0357 UTC TRMM WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS... 285/10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EPAC WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING BUD AT THE EXPENSE OF CARLOTTA AND VICE-VERSA. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME HOWEVER AS A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MEXICO IS LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INDUCING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WEAKENS IN THE EPAC...THOUGH MODELS NOW TEND TO KEEP THE HIGH A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEING A LITTLE NORTH OF CONU. A DISTANT BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPZ24 KNHC 120847 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 75SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 105SE 75SW 105NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 125.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 125.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.4N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.4N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.1N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.1N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 26.0N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 125.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPZ43 KNHC 120857 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SLIGHTLY ELLIPTICAL EYE HAS DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SSMI IMAGERY AT 0353Z REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS SLIGHTLY OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST... AND A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL HAS VERY RECENTLY OBSCURED THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SUBTLE RESTRICTION TO THE EAST DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. OTHER THAN THAT...WITH THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ABOUT 650 N MI EAST OF THE EYE OF BUD...THE CYCLONES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED SUCH THAT SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 77-90 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MIGHT BE SIGNS THAT BUD HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BUD CONTINUES MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT ABOUT 290/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 30N 130W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THAT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. BUD SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH BY THAT WEAKNESS BEFORE IT DISAPPEARS...SO A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE MODELS THAT HAVE A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE... SUCH AS THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ANTICIPATE BUD TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING LONGER THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ALONG THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BUD WILL BE REACHING THE SHARP SST GRADIENT IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE DECLINE UNTIL THEN THAT TIME...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS LOWER AT 90 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO SHOWS A MORE RAPID DECLINE BEYOND THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 115.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.7N 117.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 121.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 124.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 128.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 132.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 21.6N 124.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 122.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 26.3N 120.3E 985HPA 27M/S P+72HR 27.7N 118.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/120335JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 114.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.7N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.6N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.5N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.5N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 121000Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 115.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 21.4N 124.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 22.6N 122.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 23.7N 120.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 21.4N 124.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 23.7N 120.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 140600UTC 25.0N 116.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 150600UTC 25.8N 112.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 12 JULY TYPHOON (BILIS) {0604} UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI CIRCLE FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN SIX ZERO ZERO KILOMETER FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST AT 140600 TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AT 150600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN32 PHNC 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/120930JUL2006// AMP/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 102.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 102.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.2N 104.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.0N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.8N 109.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.4N 111.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.1N 115.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 120400Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 103.4W. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 112351Z JUL 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 120000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/120935JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 103.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 103.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.6N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.0N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 121000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 104.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/120935JUL2006// REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 103.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 103.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 14.6N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.4N 108.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0N 110.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 121000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 104.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.