** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PHNC 112330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 112.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 112.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.8N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.5N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.3N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.8N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: 112200Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 113.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 20.8N 126.0E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 123.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 25.8N 120.9E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 27.5N 118.8E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 20.8N 126.0E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 23.0N 121.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 140000UTC 24.6N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 150000UTC 25.4N 112.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 20.8N 126.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 23.0N 121.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.6N 117.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 25.4N 112.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 120206 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AT 12/00Z SHIPS A8AL6 AND SIWB REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 24 KT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHIP SIWB ALSO REPORTED 11 FT SEA HEIGHTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. THERE MAY BE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT REFORMS NEAR ANY NEW CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS TAKING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAM MODELS FAVOR A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 130-150W LONGITUDE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-UKMET SOLUTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDRANCES TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEAR TO BE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND MUCH COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AFTER 72 HOURS. IF MORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE INNER- CORE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME STRONGER BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER IN 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...A PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS LONG AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.4N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ34 KNHC 120207 *** TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 ...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN RIVIERA... AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OUTER RAINBANDS ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN RIVIERA FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ24 KNHC 120207 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ43 KNHC 120217 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN EYE FEATURE FIRST PEAKING THROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AROUND 2030 UTC AND THEN BECOMING CLEARLY DEFINED BY 2230 UTC. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AN IMPRESSIVE T4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND T5.0...90 KT... FROM TAFB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE ESTIMATES BUT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE WINDS ARE LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE SST SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME INTERESTING SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE GFS WHICH SHOWS BUD MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST...TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH PLOW BUD RIGHT INTO THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST BEGINNING BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.6N 114.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 120217 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.1W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.1W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 120300 UTC 00HR 21.0N 125.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 975 HPA AT 21.0N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 23.3N 120.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 21.0N 125.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 23.3N 120.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 140000UTC 24.6N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 150000UTC 25.4N 112.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT80 EGRR 120504 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.07.2006 HURRICANE BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 113.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.07.2006 14.4N 113.9W MODERATE 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.2N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2006 16.0N 118.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 17.7N 121.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 19.0N 123.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 19.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2006 20.5N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.07.2006 21.3N 130.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.07.2006 21.0N 133.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 101.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.07.2006 13.2N 101.0W WEAK 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.0N 102.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 15.8N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2006 15.2N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 15.6N 104.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120504