** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 20.1N 127.1E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 124.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 24.4N 122.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 26.3N 120.1E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 20.0N 127.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 22.6N 123.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.4N 119.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.3N 114.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 20.0N 127.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 22.6N 123.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 131800UTC 24.4N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 141800UTC 25.3N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 111800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME STS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 111800UTC 20.0N 127.0E MOVEMENT WNW 13KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 121800UTC 22.4N 124.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 131800UTC 24.3N 120.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 141800UTC 25.3N 116.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ43 KNHC 112049 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE SHEAR/BURSTING PATTERN DESCRIBING BUDS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MORNING HAS NOW TURNED INTO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDING-TYPE PATTERN. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED...THOUGH BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PRIMITIVE BUT SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING AS WELL AS AN EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY RESTRICTED. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RATHER ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEAR THIS OUT...BOTH COMING IN AT T3.0...OR 45 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER. OVERNIGHT AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION ARE NO LONGER AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. SMOOTHING OUT PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES YIELDS A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 9 KTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYERED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 150W WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT AND WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES THAT BUD REMAINS FREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. FOR NOW...THIS WILL REMAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BLEND OF BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WHATEVER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WAS PRESENT OVER BUD UNTIL THIS MORNING HAS APPARENTLY WEAKENED...AS EVIDENCED BY ITS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW. A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RELATED TO THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT TOO SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 60 HRS...SHOULD LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHOULD BE WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BUD TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT SYSTEMS SUCH AS BUD ARE NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR VOLATILE SWINGS IN INTENSITY. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY FORECAST PRESENTED HERE MAY HAVE LARGER-THAN-NORMAL ERRORS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.4N 113.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W 45 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH ** WTPZ23 KNHC 112050 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 5NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 85NE 85SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH ** WTPN32 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 127.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 127.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.8N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.2N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 24.3N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.5N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 27.4N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 29.3N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 126.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 20.5N 126.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.1N 123.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 25.1N 121.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 27.1N 119.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 20.6N 126.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 22.9N 121.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 20.6N 126.4E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 22.9N 121.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 131800UTC 24.4N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 141800UTC 25.3N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 113.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 113.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.9N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.0N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.6N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 17.2N 123.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4N 127.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.2N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 112200Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 113.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 112229 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 2230 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.1W AT 11/2230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.1W AT 11/2230Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.8N 120.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME ** WTPZ43 KNHC 112234 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE BUD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 330 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BUD HAS DEVELOPED A BANDED EYE FEATURE...INDICATING IT IS NOW A HURRICANE AND IS ALSO UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY...INCREASE THE INTENSITY TREND...AND EXPAND THE WIND RADII. BUD IS SEVERAL HOURS INTO ITS PRESENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2230Z 14.2N 113.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 114.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.3N 118.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.8N 120.4W 95 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME