** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 19.4N 128.3E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 599KM 50KTS 59KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 126.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 23.5N 123.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 25.0N 120.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 19.6N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.4N 125.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 24.9N 120.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 25.8N 117.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 19.6N 128.4E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 22.4N 125.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 131200UTC 24.9N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 141200UTC 25.8N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPZ43 KNHC 111449 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN AT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS PACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN PREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION AND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE TO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE LARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE UKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE DISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED INCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS SMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB TEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC COMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W 35 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN ** WTPZ23 KNHC 111449 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN ** WTPN32 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.8N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 21.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.9N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.9N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.9N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 27.7N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 30.3N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 127.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC 00HR 19.7N 127.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 112.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 112.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.3N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.8N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.0N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.9N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.2N 126.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 111600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 113.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 19.8N 127.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 270NM FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 22.9N 124.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 131200UTC 24.9N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 141200UTC 25.8N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 985 HPA AT 19.8N 127.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 22.9N 124.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 111756 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM BUD ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 110.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.07.2006 13.9N 110.9W WEAK 00UTC 12.07.2006 15.2N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.07.2006 15.1N 117.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 16.0N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 16.8N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 16.8N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111756