** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 19.0N 129.0E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 126.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 22.6N 124.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 24.9N 119.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 110640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH - EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 19.0N 129.0E FAIR MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 22.1N 125.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 130600UTC 24.6N 122.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 140600UTC 25.9N 119.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 990 HPA AT 19.0N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 22.1N 125.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 24.6N 122.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 25.9N 119.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME LOW FORMER TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 41N 134E MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 996HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 19.0N 129.0E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 21.7N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.8N 122.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 25.0N 118.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 18 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 19.0N 129.0E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 21.7N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.8N 122.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 25.0N 118.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 18 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 110841 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.3W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 111.3W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ43 KNHC 110901 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0145Z RETRIEVED A FEW 35-KT VECTORS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... BUT I STILL SUSPECT THOSE WERE SLIGHTLY RAIN-INFLATED...AND 30 KT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED... AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THOSE ESTIMATES DIFFER IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATITUDE OF THE CENTER LOCATION. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AND SSMI...I HAVE SETTLED ON A CENTER LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE GEOSTATIONARY FIXES. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATE... AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED TROPICAL STORM BUD WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE ADVISORY POSITION REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND THE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/7. SINCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF BUD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS IS COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH TWO OTHER CIRCULATIONS...A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST IN THE ITCZ...AND THE LARGER AND DEEPER DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 N MI TO THE EAST. SINCE THE CIRCULATION OF BUD HAS BECOME FAIRLY ROBUST...I TEND TO FAVOR THE MODELS THAT DEPICT IT WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND ECMWF...WHICH DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH EITHER OF THE OTHER CIRCULATIONS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH BRINGS BUD TO COOLER WATERS A LITTLE SOONER... IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 60 KT... IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.7N 111.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN32 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 128.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.0N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.1N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.1N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.2N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.1N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 27.1N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 29.9N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 128.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 19.2N 128.8E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 125.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 23.6N 122.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 25.8N 120.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 111.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 111.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 14.2N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.8N 113.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.2N 115.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.8N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 17.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.5N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 111000Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 111.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 19.5N 128.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 22.7N 124.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 130600UTC 24.6N 122.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 140600UTC 25.9N 119.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 990 HPA AT 19.5N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 22.7N 124.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 110600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 06 AT 0600 11 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BILIS) {0604} UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATE AT ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120600 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 130600 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST AT 140600 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA =