** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 39.3N 130.6E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 17.7N 129.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 126.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 22.2N 124.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 24.0N 120.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 996 HPA AT 40.2N 131.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 42.5N 135.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 44.2N 139.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 40.2N 131.4E FAIR MOVE NE 25KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 44.2N 139.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 17.7N 129.7E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 20.5N 126.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 130000UTC 23.0N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 140000UTC 24.5N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 990 HPA AT 17.7N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.5N 126.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 23.0N 124.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.5N 119.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ43 KNHC 110201 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST. THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48 HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ23 KNHC 110201 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 0300 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 110.6W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 110.6W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 40.2N 132.4E FAIR MOVE ENE 25KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 44.5N 140.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 990 HPA AT 18.1N 129.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 20.9N 126.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 18.1N 129.4E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 20.9N 126.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 130000UTC 23.0N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 140000UTC 24.5N 119.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 110531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.7N 98.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2006 10.7N 98.9W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2006 11.1N 100.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.07.2006 11.6N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2006 12.4N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2006 13.6N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 15.1N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 16.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 16.8N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.07.2006 16.6N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 110.6W ACDF IDENTIFIER EP032006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.07.2006 13.0N 110.6W WEAK 12UTC 11.07.2006 14.7N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.07.2006 15.3N 115.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2006 15.4N 117.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.07.2006 17.1N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 17.4N 122.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.5N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 18.1N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2006 18.2N 128.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110531