** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 35.5N 126.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 42.6N 130.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 16.5N 132.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 18.5N 129.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.5N 127.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.0N 125.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 35.5N 126.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.6N 129.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 41.2N 132.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 35.5N 126.5E GOOD MOVE N 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 41.2N 132.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27 NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 35.5N 126.5E MOVEMENT N 19KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 101800UTC 38.7N 128.5E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 42.0N 131.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT 36HR POSITION 111800UTC 45.3N 135.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 100627 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 32 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? 000 TTAAii DEMS 100626 ** WTJP22 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 994 HPA AT 16.5N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 19.1N 128.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 22.0N 125.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.6N 122.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 16.5N 132.4E FAIR MOVE NW 15KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 19.1N 128.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120600UTC 22.0N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 130600UTC 23.6N 122.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 16.7N 132.2E MOVEMENT NW 15KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 19.3N 128.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 120600UTC 21.4N 126.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.7N 123.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100752JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 043 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 35.8N 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 35.8N 126.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 39.5N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 42.3N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 127.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS REVEALS TS 04W HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 132.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 132.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.0N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.2N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 20.1N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.9N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.4N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.8N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 26.3N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 131.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 0600 10 JULY TROPICAL STPRM (BILIS) (0605) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TYREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 110600 ONE NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AT 120600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 130600 TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 36.1N 126.7E GOOD MOVE N 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 42.2N 132.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100900 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28 NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 100900UTC 36.5N 126.8E MOVEMENT NNE 19KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT FORECAST 06HR POSITION 101500UTC 37.6N 127.6E WITHIN 20NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT 12HR POSITION 102100UTC 39.2N 129.0E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT 18HR POSITION 110300UTC 41.1N 131.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 16.8N 132.1E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 19.5N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 120600UTC 22.0N 125.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 130600UTC 23.6N 122.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT =