** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 33.5N 126.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 40.6N 129.0E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 16.1N 134.0E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 130.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.0N 127.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 22.6N 125.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 33.6N 126.2E GOOD MOVE N 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 40NM EAST 20NM WEST 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 39.0N 130.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 120000UTC 45.0N 136.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 33.6N 126.2E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 35.9N 127.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 39.0N 130.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 45.0N 136.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25 NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 100000UTC 33.7N 126.3E MOVEMENT N 20KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 101200UTC 36.6N 127.3E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 24HR POSITION 110000UTC 40.0N 129.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 36HR POSITION 111200UTC 44.3N 135.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 15.5N 133.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 17.2N 129.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120000UTC 20.0N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 130000UTC 22.2N 126.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 998 HPA AT 15.5N 133.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 17.2N 129.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 20.0N 128.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 22.2N 126.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 30 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100152JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 042 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 125.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 125.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 36.7N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 40.4N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 126.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN, KOREA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 092105Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED 25 NM WEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TS 05W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 133.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 133.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.1N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.4N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.5N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.3N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.5N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.3N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 26.3N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 133.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE, POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCU- LATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TS 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 100300 UTC 00HR 34.5N 126.5E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 129.0E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 100000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 01 AT 0000 10 JULY TROPICAL STORM BILIS WAS ESTIMATED BASED ONE SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILO- METERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTRAL FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110000 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST AT 120000 TWO ZERO POINT ONE ONE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST AT 13000 TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA=PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 100300 *** WARNING 100300. WARNING VALID 110300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 980 HPA AT 34.5N 126.4E KOREA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 37.5N 128.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 40.3N 130.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 34.5N 126.4E GOOD MOVE N 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 40.3N 130.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 120000UTC 45.0N 136.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 100300 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26 NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 100300UTC 34.6N 126.4E MOVEMENT N 20KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 51KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 101500UTC 36.9N 127.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT 24HR POSITION 110300UTC 40.4N 129.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 111500UTC 44.5N 134.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 16.2N 132.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 19.2N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 120000UTC 20.0N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 130000UTC 22.2N 126.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 100504 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.7N 107.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2006 11.7N 107.6W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2006 12.2N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.07.2006 12.6N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2006 14.7N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.07.2006 15.6N 112.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2006 16.3N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 12.9N 120.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.07.2006 11.4N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.07.2006 17.2N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100504