** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 14.6N 135.7E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.7N 132.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 19.5N 128.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 21.6N 126.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 31.7N 125.5E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 38.6N 125.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 47.0N 133.3E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 965 HPA AT 31.6N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 34.4N 126.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.2N 127.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 43.7N 134.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 31.6N 125.7E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 37.2N 127.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111800UTC 43.7N 134.6E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 996 HPA AT 14.8N 135.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 17.4N 131.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.8N 128.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 22.4N 126.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 14.8N 135.7E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 17.4N 131.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111800UTC 19.8N 128.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 121800UTC 22.4N 126.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 091800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23 NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 091800UTC 31.8N 125.8E MOVEMENT N 16KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 100600UTC 35.1N 126.1E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 24HR POSITION 101800UTC 38.2N 127.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 36HR POSITION 110600UTC 41.5N 129.7E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 111800UTC 45.1N 133.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 091800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 091800UTC 14.8N 135.7E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 101800UTC 17.6N 131.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 111800UTC 19.9N 129.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 121800UTC 22.0N 126.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 134.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 134.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.4N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.1N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.5N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.1N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.0N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 134.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/091952JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 041 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 32.2N 125.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.2N 125.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 35.4N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 39.0N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 125.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 092100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 092100 UTC 00HR 32.3N 125.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 39.8N 128.6E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 47.0N 140.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 092142 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILIS (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BILIS TRACKING STEADILY AWAY FROM MICRONESIA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 425 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 475 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 710 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM BILIS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BILIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BILIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...14.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 134.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE ON TROPICAL STORM BILIS. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 32.6N 126.0E GOOD MOVE N 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 38.2N 128.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111800UTC 43.7N 134.6E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 092100 *** WARNING 092100. WARNING VALID 102100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 965 HPA AT 32.6N 126.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 35.1N 126.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 38.2N 128.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 15.3N 134.6E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 17.4N 130.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111800UTC 19.8N 128.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 121800UTC 22.4N 126.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 092100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 092100UTC 32.6N 126.0E MOVEMENT N 14KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 100900UTC 35.7N 126.5E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 102100UTC 38.5N 127.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 36HR POSITION 110900UTC 41.7N 130.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 112100UTC 44.9N 133.0E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.