** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 30.7N 125.7E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR N 25KM/H P+24HR 37.5N 126.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 44.4N 131.2E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 14.1N 136.3E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.2N 132.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 19.1N 128.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 21.0N 126.7E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 30.6N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 36.8N 126.4E 90NM 70% MOVE N 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 111200UTC 42.1N 128.6E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 091200 *** WARNING 091200. WARNING VALID 101200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 965 HPA AT 30.6N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 33.6N 125.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 36.8N 126.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 42.1N 128.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 091200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 091200UTC 30.4N 125.9E MOVEMENT N 14KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 100000UTC 33.7N 125.6E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 101200UTC 36.9N 125.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 36HR POSITION 110000UTC 40.3N 126.4E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 111200UTC 44.0N 128.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP22 RJTD 091200 *** WARNING 091200. WARNING VALID 101200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) 998 HPA AT 14.0N 136.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 17.7N 132.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 19.9N 130.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 21.6N 129.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 14.0N 136.4E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 30NM FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 17.7N 132.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111200UTC 19.9N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 121200UTC 21.6N 129.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 135.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 135.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.4N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.8N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.1N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.3N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.5N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.2N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 135.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 090922Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE STORM CIRCULATION IS APPROXIMATELY 600 NM ACROSS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS YET TO FULLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THIS LARGE TROPICAL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/091352JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 040 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 04W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 30.7N 125.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 125.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 33.9N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 37.2N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 40.9N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 125.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 090944Z SSMI PASS REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 091500 UTC 00HR 31.2N 125.6E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 31.1N 125.6E GOOD MOVE N 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 37.2N 126.3E 90NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 111200UTC 42.1N 128.6E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 091500 *** WARNING 091500. WARNING VALID 101500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 965 HPA AT 31.1N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 34.0N 125.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 37.2N 126.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 091545 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILIS (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 10 2006 ...BILIS IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 430 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 655 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM BILIS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BILIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BILIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...14.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 135.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM MONDAY GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ21 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 14.3N 136.0E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 17.9N 132.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111200UTC 19.9N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 121200UTC 21.6N 129.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 091500 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22 NAME STS 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 091500UTC 31.1N 125.9E MOVEMENT N 11KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 100300UTC 33.9N 125.8E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 24HR POSITION 101500UTC 37.0N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 36HR POSITION 110300UTC 40.9N 127.3E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 111500UTC 45.5N 130.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 091655 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091655