** WTIN20 DEMS 090627 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-07-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC 00HR 29.2N 125.8E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 30KM/H P+24HR 35.0N 125.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 41.2N 127.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 48.4N 132.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 090600 *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 960 HPA AT 29.3N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 31.2N 125.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 34.1N 124.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 39.0N 124.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 29.3N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 34.1N 124.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 110600UTC 39.0N 124.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 CCA *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 29.3N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 18KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 35.4N 126.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 110600UTC 41.4N 127.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 090600 CCA *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 960 HPA AT 29.3N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 32.4N 125.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 35.4N 126.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 41.4N 127.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 090600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 090600UTC 29.2N 125.8E MOVEMENT N 16KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 091800UTC 32.1N 125.3E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 24HR POSITION 100600UTC 35.1N 125.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 36HR POSITION 101800UTC 38.6N 125.5E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 110600UTC 43.0N 127.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 60HR POSITION 111800UTC 47.3N 130.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTJP22 RJTD 090600 *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 13.4N 137.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 16.6N 134.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 18.8N 131.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 21.0N 129.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 13.4N 137.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 18KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 30NM FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 16.6N 134.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 110600UTC 18.8N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 120600UTC 21.0N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0604 BILIS (0604) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BILIS 0604 (0604) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC 00HR 13.5N 136.8E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.0N 132.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 17.0N 129.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 18.8N 127.3E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 090600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0604 BILIS ANALYSIS POSITION 090600UTC 13.4N 137.0E MOVEMENT WNW 18KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 100600UTC 16.6N 134.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 110600UTC 18.8N 131.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 120600UTC 20.8N 129.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/090752JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 039 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 29.2N 125.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 125.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 32.5N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 35.7N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 39.0N 126.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 42.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 30.0N 125.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BILIS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BILIS) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.6N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.2N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.6N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.5N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.2N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 136.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (BILIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC 00HR 30.0N 125.7E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 430KM 50KTS 130KM P12HR N 30KM/H P+24HR 35.8N 125.9E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 43.4N 129.5E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 48.9N 134.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 30.0N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 18KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 36.3N 125.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 110600UTC 41.4N 127.8E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 090900 *** WARNING 090900. WARNING VALID 100900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 965 HPA AT 30.0N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 33.3N 125.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 36.3N 125.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 090953 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS (05W) SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 310 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 345 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 395 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 575 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...13.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 136.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM MONDAY GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 14.0N 136.5E FAIR MOVE NW 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 30NM FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 16.8N 134.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 110600UTC 18.8N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 120600UTC 21.0N 129.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT =