** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 090000 UTC 00HR 27.5N 125.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 33.0N 125.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 39.7N 126.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 46.8N 131.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 090000 *** WARNING 090000. WARNING VALID 100000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 960 HPA AT 27.5N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 29.8N 125.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 32.8N 124.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 39.0N 124.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 46.0N 133.0E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 27.5N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 90NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 250NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 32.8N 124.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 110000UTC 39.0N 124.9E 170NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 120000UTC 46.0N 133.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 12.4N 138.6E POOR MOVE W 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 14.9N 136.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 090000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 090000UTC 27.5N 125.8E MOVEMENT N 12KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 70KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 091200UTC 29.6N 125.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 24HR POSITION 100000UTC 32.8N 124.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 36HR POSITION 101200UTC 36.3N 124.9E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 110000UTC 40.1N 125.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 60HR POSITION 111200UTC 44.2N 127.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.4N 138.6E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/090152JUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 038 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 27.6N 125.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 125.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 30.5N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 33.4N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 36.4N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 39.8N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 125.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/0090151ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.8N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.4N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.9N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.3N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.5N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 137.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 082050Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 30 AND 90 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 090300 UTC 00HR 28.3N 125.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR N 30KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 090300 *** WARNING 090300. WARNING VALID 100300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 960 HPA AT 28.2N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 31.2N 125.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 34.1N 124.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 28.2N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 90NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 250NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 34.1N 124.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 110000UTC 39.0N 124.9E 170NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 120000UTC 46.0N 133.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 090358 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 3 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF YAP 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 305 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 480 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 2 PM POSITION...13.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ21 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 13.1N 137.5E POOR MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 16.9N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 090421 CCA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 9 2006 CORRECTION TO TIMES IN PRODUCT ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF YAP 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 305 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 480 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...13.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 090526 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.07.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.3N 105.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2006 11.3N 105.0W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2006 12.5N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.07.2006 12.8N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.07.2006 13.8N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2006 13.7N 109.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.4N 111.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 14.8N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.07.2006 15.9N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.07.2006 16.7N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.07.2006 17.0N 114.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.07.2006 17.2N 115.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090526