** WTIN20 DEMS 080615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 34 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 080600 UTC 00HR 24.1N 126.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 27.3N 125.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 32.1N 125.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.0N 125.7E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 24.1N 126.3E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 190NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 090600UTC 28.3N 124.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 100600UTC 34.3N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 110600UTC 44.3N 124.9E 270NM 70% MOVE N 25KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 080600 *** WARNING 080600. WARNING VALID 090600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 24.1N 126.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 26.0N 125.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 28.3N 124.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 34.3N 123.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 44.3N 124.9E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 080600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 080600UTC 24.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT NNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 090600UTC 28.3N 125.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 100600UTC 33.9N 124.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 110600UTC 42.0N 125.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 12.2N 141.5E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 090600UTC 15.0N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.2 141.5 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/080752JUL2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 035 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 26.4N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 28.8N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 31.7N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 35.1N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 42.0N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 126.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 141.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 141.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 12.8N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.7N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.6N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 15.6N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.0N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 141.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 080900 UTC 00HR 24.6N 126.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.6N 124.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 34.6N 124.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 42.7N 125.9E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 080945 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 8 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP 185 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FAIS 330 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP AND 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...12.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM SUNDAY GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPH20 RPMM 080600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 25 AT 0600 08 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) {0603} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090600 TWO EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 080900 *** WARNING 080900. WARNING VALID 090900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 24.7N 126.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 26.7N 125.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 29.2N 124.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 080900UTC 24.7N 126.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 190NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 090900UTC 29.2N 124.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 100600UTC 34.3N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 110600UTC 44.3N 124.9E 270NM 70% MOVE N 25KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 080900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 080900UTC 12.2N 141.0E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 090900UTC 15.0N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT =