** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC 00HR 23.2N 126.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 26.2N 125.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 31.0N 125.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 37.2N 125.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 080000UTC 23.1N 126.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM EAST 190NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 090000UTC 26.4N 124.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 100000UTC 31.9N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 110000UTC 41.4N 124.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 23KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 080000 *** WARNING 080000. WARNING VALID 090000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 23.1N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 24.6N 125.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 26.4N 124.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 31.9N 123.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 41.4N 124.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 034 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 126.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 24.9N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 27.1N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 29.7N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 32.4N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 38.5N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071151ZJUL06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 142.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 142.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 11.6N 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 12.4N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.6N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.5N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 142.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY TD 05W HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE NORTH OF THE PREV- IOUSLY IDENTIFIED POSITION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 071151ZJUL06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORM- ATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 071200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ32 PGUM 080318 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 118 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 8 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W NEWLY FORMED BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP 195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIS 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP AND 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTESIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...11.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 080300 UTC 00HR 23.6N 126.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 23.7N 126.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 25.3N 125.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 27.5N 124.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 23.7N 126.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM EAST 190NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 27.5N 124.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 100000UTC 31.9N 123.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 110000UTC 41.4N 124.3E 220NM 70% MOVE N 23KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 080506 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.6N 74.5W NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.0N 121.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2006 11.0N 121.2W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2006 12.3N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2006 11.5N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.07.2006 12.6N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2006 12.6N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.0N 119.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080506 ** WTNT80 EGRR 080506 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.6N 74.5W NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.0N 121.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.07.2006 11.0N 121.2W WEAK 12UTC 10.07.2006 12.3N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.07.2006 11.5N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.07.2006 12.6N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.07.2006 12.6N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.07.2006 14.0N 119.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080506