** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC 00HR 22.1N 127.1E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.8N 125.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 34.0N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN22 PGTW 071200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/071151Z JUL 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 143.2E TO 12.9N 137.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 142.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 141.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, 070900Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, AND A 070833Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO SYMMETRIC CIRC- ULATION. CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE LLCC AND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURB- ANCE REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPO- SPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 081200Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 071200UTC 22.1N 127.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTH 190NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 081200UTC 24.8N 125.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 091200UTC 29.1N 124.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 101200UTC 34.8N 122.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 071200 *** WARNING 071200. WARNING VALID 081200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 127.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 24.8N 125.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 29.1N 124.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 34.8N 122.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 071500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 23.7N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.6N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 28.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 30.8N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 36.3N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 43.3N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 49.5N 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 127.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 071500 UTC 00HR 22.4N 127.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 190KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 25.6N 125.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.6N 125.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 35.6N 125.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 071500UTC 22.3N 126.8E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 250NM SOUTH 190NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 081500UTC 25.1N 125.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 091200UTC 29.1N 124.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 101200UTC 34.8N 122.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 071500 *** WARNING 071500. WARNING VALID 081500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 22.3N 126.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 190 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 23.7N 126.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 25.1N 125.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 071200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 1200Z 07 JULY TYPHOON (EWINAIR)(0603)WAS LOCATED BASE ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.1 NORTH 127.1 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 03 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 450KMS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HEXTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS 46MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 450KMS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081200Z 24.2 NORTH 125.8 EAST AT 091200Z 26.6 NORTH 126.0 EAST ALL SHIPS W/HIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 071200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 1200 07 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) {0603} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NOERTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILO- METERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081200 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 091200 TWO SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 071742 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.07.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071742