** WTIN20 DEMS 070615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTIN20 DEMS 070615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-07-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ----- ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 21.4N 127.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 23.9N 126.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 090600UTC 27.6N 124.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 100600UTC 33.0N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 21.4N 127.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 23.9N 126.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 27.6N 124.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 33.0N 123.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 21.4N 127.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 24.2N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.4N 125.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 32.3N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR ANALYSIS POSITION 070600UTC 21.4N 127.5E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080600UTC 24.1N 126.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 090600UTC 28.0N 125.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 100600UTC 32.9N 125.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO WEST. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 127.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 127.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 22.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 24.2N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 26.4N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 29.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 35.3N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 41.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 48.7N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 127.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY EWINIAR 0603 (0603) INITIAL TIME 070900 UTC 00HR 21.8N 127.2E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 13KM/H P+24HR 24.5N 126.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.7N 125.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 32.7N 125.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0603 EWINIAR (0603) 950 HPA AT 21.8N 127.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 24.5N 125.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 21.8N 127.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 240NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 24.5N 125.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 090600UTC 27.6N 124.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 100600UTC 33.0N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH RPLL 070600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0600 07 JULY TYPHOON ( EWINIAR) (0603) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINTFOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 090600 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TOS END THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPH20 RPMM 070600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0600 07 JULY TYPHOON (EWINIAR) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH- WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI- CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 TWO THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 090600 TWO FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=